$36.5B
17.7
$1.33
$2.73B
eBay reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 18 after market close, with the quarter providing the full read on whether the company’s platform transformation strategy is generating sustainable advertising revenue growth while maintaining marketplace competitiveness.
Consensus sits at $1.33 EPS and $2.73 billion revenue, both above management’s October guidance midpoint, creating downside risk if execution merely meets rather than exceeds expectations.
eBay’s stock (NASDAQ:EBAY) trades at $82.33, up 2.98% on the day, yet down 19% from its 52-week high of $101.15, reflecting investor skepticism about the company’s ability to balance growth investments with margin expansion. The quarter tests whether eBay’s advertising business can continue outpacing overall marketplace growth while absorbing headwinds from trade policy changes.
Management guided to high-single-digit revenue growth and 5% GMV expansion at the midpoint, implying approximately $20.7 billion in gross merchandise volume. Consensus revenue of $2.73 billion represents 6.0% year-over-year growth, slightly below the guided range, while EPS expectations of $1.33 imply 12.2% growth versus prior year.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Consensus Est. | Range | Prior Guidance | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (Adjusted) | $1.33 | $1.29 – $1.38 | $1.30 (midpoint) | +12.2% |
| Revenue | $2.73B | $2.71B – $2.78B | $2.75B (midpoint) | +6.0% |
| GMV | $20.7B | $20.5B – $20.9B | $20.7B (midpoint) | +5.0% |
Analysts Covering: 27 (EPS) / 24 (Revenue)
Estimate Revisions (30d): 5 up / 0 down
Consensus EPS of $1.33 sits 2.3% above management’s October guidance midpoint of $1.30, while revenue expectations of $2.73 billion fall slightly below the guided midpoint of $2.75 billion. This creates asymmetric risk: the company must beat on both metrics to justify the estimate positioning.
Analyst Price Targets & Ratings
Wall Street maintains a bullish stance with 80% of analysts rating shares a Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus target of $94.67 implies 16.9% upside from current levels, though targets vary based on assumptions about advertising revenue sustainability.
Sector & Peer Comparison
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | P/E | Fwd P/E | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
eBay Inc
⭐ Focus |
EBAY | $36.5B | 17.7 | 13.9 | 20.4% |
|
Amazon.com Inc
|
AMZN | $2,159.3B | 28.0 | 24.4 | 10.8% |
|
Walmart Inc
|
WMT | $1,027.3B | 44.9 | 44.1 | 3.3% |
|
Target Corporation
|
TGT | $53.0B | 14.1 | 14.8 | 3.6% |
eBay trades at 17.7x trailing earnings and 13.9x forward earnings, positioning it between traditional retailers and high-growth e-commerce platforms. The company commands a 20.4% profit margin, substantially higher than Amazon (10.8%) and traditional retailers (3-4%), reflecting its asset-light marketplace model.
Earnings Track Record
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Result | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | $1.36 | $1.33 | Beat | +2.3% |
| 2025-06-30 | $1.37 | $1.29 | Beat | +6.2% |
| 2025-03-31 | $1.38 | $1.20 | Beat | +15.0% |
| 2024-12-31 | $1.25 | $1.21 | Beat | +3.3% |
| 2024-09-30 | $1.19 | $1.18 | Beat | +0.8% |
eBay has beaten earnings estimates in 18 of the past 20 quarters, establishing a 90% beat rate with an average positive surprise of 5.9%. The consistency of beats suggests management sets conservative guidance that the company routinely exceeds.
Post-Earnings Price Movement History
| Date | Surprise | EPS vs Est. | Next Day Move | Price Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | +2.3% | $1.36 vs $1.33 | -3.9% | $91.17 to $87.58 |
| 2025-06-30 | +6.2% | $1.37 vs $1.29 | +3.2% | $73.76 to $76.10 |
| 2025-03-31 | +15.0% | $1.38 vs $1.20 | +1.0% | $67.16 to $67.80 |
eBay’s post-earnings price movements show minimal correlation between beat magnitude and stock reaction. The most recent quarter produced a 2.3% earnings beat yet the stock declined 3.9% the following day, suggesting guidance disappointed despite the current quarter beat.
Expected Move & Implied Volatility
32%
45%
28%
The options market prices a ±4.5% move for eBay following earnings, substantially exceeding the historical average next-day reaction of +0.6%. This suggests elevated uncertainty around advertising revenue commentary and 2026 guidance.
Expert Predictions & What to Watch
Key Outlook: Guidance Will Drive the Trade
The neutral stance reflects high execution probability offset by guidance uncertainty. eBay’s consistent beat record suggests the company will deliver results, but forward commentary on advertising revenue scaling will drive the stock reaction.
Key Metrics to Watch
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