Daimler Truck Shares Face Risks, Analyst Sees Almost 30% Downside

Daimler Truck Holding AG (ETR: DTG) may face growing macro and structural pressures despite posting a mixed set of quarterly results, according to analysts at mwb Research, who reiterated a cautious stance on the stock in a recent note.

The broker described the company’s fourth-quarter performance as “a mixed bag,” noting that revenues declined 10% year-over-year to €12.87 billion, while adjusted EBIT fell 29% to €780 million, although this still slightly exceeded expectations.

Analyst Leon Mühlenbruch said industrial performance remained under pressure due to lower volumes, pricing headwinds and tariffs. Unit sales in the industrial business dropped 5% to 118,000 vehicles, while margins also deteriorated.

Although orders rose to 140,000 units, mwb Research stated that the increase was driven largely by “a low base, seasonality and European catch-up effects,” suggesting underlying demand remains fragile.

Looking ahead, Daimler Truck expects some recovery in 2026, with volumes projected at 330,000–360,000 units and adjusted EBIT of €3.2 billion to €3.7 billion.

However, mwb Research warned that “macro pressures persist,” including geopolitical tensions, tariffs and potentially elevated fuel prices that could curb fleet investment.

The broker also pointed to emerging longer-term risks, warning that Chinese electric truck manufacturers could begin to mirror their growing presence in the passenger car market, potentially pressuring margins for Western producers.

Despite some support from cost-cutting efforts and a €2 billion share buyback, mwb Research maintained its Sell rating and €30 price target, implying roughly 30% downside from current levels.