Airbus Stock Faces Rising Execution Risk Says Analyst

Airbus had a challenging start to 2026, according to mwb Research, which warned in a note this week that rising operational pressures are increasing the likelihood of another revision to the company’s delivery targets.

The brokerage said its estimates point to “around 95 aircraft by mid-March 2026,” equal to 11.1 percent of the full-year goal of 870. mwb Research added that “rumours of just 6.2% as of mid-March are wrong.”

The firm noted that engine availability “is still the key bottleneck” and said the combination of supply constraints and “Middle East (ME) supply chain exposure adds further risk.”

The firm highlighted Strata’s expanded partnership to produce A320-family ailerons, a work package expected to cover about half of the manufacturer’s demand.

mwb Research wrote that the arrangement “increases the strategic relevance of ME based manufacturing,” adding that many facilities in the region “are located close to airports, which are key targets.”

Despite the elevated risk, the analysts pointed to upside from the company’s defense assets, particularly its 37.5 percent interest in MBDA.

According to mwb Research, the stake “remains below EBIT and is therefore underappreciated in the equity story,” with an estimated value of about €7 billion, or roughly 5 percent of enterprise value.

mwb Research said “a potential IPO could improve transparency and unlock value,” though it reiterated a cautious stance.

The firm concluded: “We continue to see potential upside from a possible MBDA IPO, which could improve portfolio transparency and support valuation. Near term delivery risk has, however, increased, and we therefore slightly reduce our 2026 estimates. This does not change our DCF valuation. HOLD. PT EUR 173.00.”