Greggs Faces Investor Scrutiny Ahead of Tuesday Trading Update

Greggs (LON: GRG) publishes its first trading update of 2026 on Tuesday, 12 May, with investors eager for signs that the UK’s largest food-to-go chain is regaining momentum after a difficult year.

The baker’s full-year 2025 results, released on 3 March, painted a mixed picture. Total sales rose 6.8% to £2.15 billion. However, underlying operating profit fell 4% to £188 million, pre-tax profit dropped 9.4%, and net cash tumbled to £47 million as capital expenditure peaked. The full-year dividend was held flat at 69p per share, equating to a yield of around 4.4%.

Early 2026 trading, covering the first nine weeks of the year, showed total sales up 6.3% but LFL growth moderating to 1.6%. Management guided for profits at a “broadly similar” level to 2025, with around 120 net new shops planned for the year, below the 150 some analysts had expected.

Tuesday’s update will cover roughly the first 18–19 weeks of 2026. Markets will focus on whether LFL sales have picked up from that 1.6% opening figure, any progress on the Derby frozen logistics facility due for phased roll-out from mid-2026, and — crucially — whether full-year profit guidance holds.

Analyst opinion remains divided. The consensus sits at Hold with a £17.05 price target. The stock trades at around £14.89.