Greggs Faces Investor Scrutiny Ahead of Tuesday Trading Update

Greggs (LON: GRG) publishes its first trading update of 2026 on Tuesday, 12 May, with investors eager for signs that the UK’s largest food-to-go chain is regaining momentum after a difficult year.

The baker’s full-year 2025 results, released on 3 March, painted a mixed picture. Total sales rose 6.8% to £2.15 billion. However, underlying operating profit fell 4% to £188 million, pre-tax profit dropped 9.4%, and net cash tumbled to £47 million as capital expenditure peaked. The full-year dividend was held flat at 69p per share, equating to a yield of around 4.4%.

Early 2026 trading, covering the first nine weeks of the year, showed total sales up 6.3% but LFL growth moderating to 1.6%. Management guided for profits at a “broadly similar” level to 2025, with around 120 net new shops planned for the year, below the 150 some analysts had expected.

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Tuesday’s update will cover roughly the first 18–19 weeks of 2026. Markets will focus on whether LFL sales have picked up from that 1.6% opening figure, any progress on the Derby frozen logistics facility due for phased roll-out from mid-2026, and — crucially — whether full-year profit guidance holds.

Analyst opinion remains divided. The consensus sits at Hold with a £17.05 price target. The stock trades at around £14.89.