TD Cowen Trims Shell Target but Keeps Buy Rating After Above-Consensus Q1 Update

TD Cowen trimmed its price target on Shell to $110 from $112, maintaining its buy rating, after the energy major’s first-quarter update pointed to earnings above consensus driven by stronger-than-expected contributions from Chemicals, oil trading, Marketing and Renewables.

The update, published on April 8, flagged significantly higher Marketing adjusted earnings compared to the first quarter of 2025, stronger trading and optimisation in both Chemicals and Renewables, and an indicative refining margin of $17 per barrel, up from $14 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Shell also guided Renewables and Energy Solutions’ adjusted earnings of $0.2 billion to $0.7 billion, up from $0.1 billion in the prior quarter.

The update also reflected the impact of the Middle East conflict, with Integrated Gas production guided lower to 880,000 to 920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared to a prior quarterly outlook of 920,000 to 980,000, due to disruptions to Qatari volumes.

Shell warned the entire outlook is subject to increased uncertainty given the conflict.

TD Cowen’s modest target reduction comes amid mixed analyst sentiment on the stock.

Wells Fargo raised its target to $94 from $77 on April 9, keeping an equal weight rating, as it moved its long-term oil forecast to $75 Brent following the ceasefire announcement. Rothschild & Co Redburn, however, downgraded Shell to neutral from buy on the same day with a 3,640 pence price target.

Shell is scheduled to publish its full first-quarter results on May 7.