TUI a ‘Compelling Buying Opportunity’ Despite Rising Risks: mwb Research

TUI (ETR: TUI1) faces mounting operational and demand headwinds linked to Middle East tensions, but analysts at mwb Research remain bullish on the stock, arguing the risks are already reflected in its valuation.

The broker said “risks for guidance are increasing, but accounted for, still BUY,” maintaining its €16.00 price target, implying significant upside from current levels.

Operational disruption has been most visible in the cruise segment, where “Mein Schiff 4 and 5 are still stuck in Abu Dhabi and Doha due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” mwb Research noted.

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The company has cancelled Mediterranean sailings until May 10, with further disruptions possible if the vessels remain stranded.

At the same time, the conflict is weighing on bookings. mwb Research highlighted a “temporary slowdown in summer travel bookings,” particularly for Turkey and Egypt, with demand shifting toward Western Europe.

However, the firm expects this weakness to reverse, describing it as “only a temporary setback.”

Higher oil prices are another concern, but the impact is said to be limited in the near term. TUI has hedged 85% of its jet fuel needs for the summer season, meaning “crude prices [are] not a major problem – for now,” according to the note.

While mwb Research has trimmed its FY26 estimates and warned TUI may need to adjust guidance, it believes the impact of current disruptions will be contained.

It added that “the current share price level presents a compelling buying opportunity,” supported by improving financial resilience and the group’s ability to shift capacity to safer destinations.