Tesco Q1 Preview: Here’s What to Expect

Tesco (LON: TSCO) is set to report its first-quarter trading statement for FY2026/27 on June 18, with analysts forecasting continued earnings growth this year even as management’s previous guidance reflected heightened macro uncertainty.

Analyst consensus, compiled via Visible Alpha and published by Tesco on April 29, puts group revenue for the full year at £74.86bn, with a range of £74.24bn to £76.18bn across eight contributing estimates.

Adjusted operating profit is seen at £3.25bn, which is comfortably within, though skewed toward the upper end of, management’s £3.0bn-to-£3.3bn guidance range issued alongside February’s preliminary results for FY2025/26.

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Adjusted diluted EPS is forecast at 30.8p for the current year, rising to 33.1p and 35.6p in the two subsequent years.

Management’s widened guidance range reflects the conflict in the Middle East and its potential knock-on effects for UK households and the broader economy.

Tesco reaffirmed a free cash flow target of £1.5bn to £2.0bn and flagged a further £500m in planned savings through its Save to Invest programme.

According to Kantar data, Tesco’s grocery market share in Great Britain stood at 28.2% for the 12 weeks ending May 17.

On the analyst side, Morgan Stanley launched coverage last month with an Overweight rating and a 560p price target, arguing that the competitive dynamic in UK grocery has evolved beyond simple price competition into a broader battle for consumer spend across interconnected services.

Erste Group similarly initiated with a Buy in early May, pointing to market share gains as the core investment thesis.

Tesco shares have gained 4.4% year-to-date and 16.5% over the past 12 months, though the stock has given back around 5.6% over the last three months heading into Thursday’s update.