Baltic Classifieds Shares Slump as Revenue Miss and Cautious Outlook Spook Investors

Shares in Baltic Classifieds Group (LON: BCG) fell as much as 8% on Thursday, hitting a low of 177p before settling around 184.8p, after the Vilnius-based online classifieds operator posted full-year results that revealed a rare revenue shortfall against analyst expectations, overshadowing otherwise solid profit growth.

Revenue Falls Short Despite Profit Beat

For the year to 30 April 2026, BCG reported revenue up 7% to €88.5 million — below the €89.4 million consensus and beneath even the lowest analyst estimate of €88.7 million.

Operating profit rose 13% to €60.4 million, ahead of forecasts, while adjusted net income climbed 7% to €58.1 million and basic EPS jumped 16% to 10.8 euro cents, both beating expectations. EBITDA margin held steady at 78%.

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Real Estate Leads Growth, Auto Stays Flat

Real Estate was the standout performer, up 17%, while Jobs & Services grew 9%. Auto revenue was flat, hurt by a 9% decline in consumer-to-consumer listings linked to Estonia’s new vehicle tax and severe winter weather disruption in Lithuania and Estonia during January and February 2026.

Accelerated Buybacks and Higher Dividend

The group returned €101.1 million to shareholders via buybacks and dividends — more than triple last year’s figure — funded partly through new debt, pushing net debt to €46.2 million and leverage to 0.7x EBITDA. The board said the accelerated buyback programme reflected its view that the “prevailing BCG share price undervalues the strength of the Company’s business model.” The board proposed a total 2026 dividend of 4.4 euro cents per share, up from 3.8 cents.

Cautious Outlook Weighs on Sentiment

Investors appeared more focused on the topline miss and guidance of “around 10%” revenue growth for 2027 — weighted towards the second half — alongside continued caution on inventory trends, suggesting near-term momentum may remain subdued despite management’s confidence that AI-related concerns over the business model are “overstated.”