Analyst Flags Downside Risk For Anglo American Shares – Here’s Why

Anglo American (LON: AAL) shares are down 4% over the past month despite gains of 16.9% year-to-date and 63.9% over the past 12 months, trading at 3,621 pence, with JPMorgan raising its price target on the miner while maintaining a bearish stance on the stock.

JPMorgan analyst Dominic O’Kane raised the firm’s price target on Anglo American to 3,350 pence from 3,160 pence but kept an Underweight rating on the shares in a recent note to clients, placing the stock on “negative catalyst watch.”

According to JPMorgan, Anglo American faces the greatest cost-driven risks among its European diversified miners coverage, citing the company’s unique exposure to elevated freight rates in Brazil and South Africa tied to its iron ore operations.

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The revised price target still implies potential downside from current trading levels, underscoring JPMorgan’s cautious view even as the firm acknowledges a higher valuation ceiling for the stock.

The bearish call comes despite a broadly mixed picture among Wall Street analysts. Data from TradingView shows 6 of 17 analysts covering Anglo American rate the stock a buy, while 9 have a hold rating and 2 rate it a sell, suggesting the majority of the Street remains neutral to cautious on the miner’s near-term prospects.

Anglo American’s strong 12-month performance has been driven by broader strength in the mining sector, though the recent pullback highlights growing investor sensitivity to cost pressures facing diversified miners with significant exposure to volatile shipping and logistics expenses in key operating regions.