Markets enter the week digesting fresh policy settings rather than awaiting a decision. The Fed cut to 3.50-3.75% last Wednesday, the ECB lowered its deposit rate to 2.25% the day before, and the BoE held Bank Rate at 3.75%, with no MPC meeting due in this window. Wednesday’s flash PMIs are the key hard data, testing whether momentum justifies further easing or argues for a pause, while a dense run of Fed, ECB and BoE speakers will be parsed for the same signal.
Monday
ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at 16:00 UK time. No consensus data is scheduled.
Tuesday
TUI reports a trading statement; management is expected to maintain full-year underlying operating profit guidance of €1.1-1.4bn. ECB’s Claudia Buch speaks at 15:10 UK time, and the Fed’s Jefferson and Williams also speak.
Wednesday
Flash Composite PMIs land through the morning: Germany at 8.30am (consensus 51.7, prior 51.8), the Eurozone at 9am (51.7/52.0) and the UK at 9.30am (52.3/52.5), with the US reading at 2.45pm (55.2/56.0). JD Sports also reports half-year results, after guidance was cut by £50m to £700-800m on weak North American footwear demand.
Thursday
US durable goods orders and jobless claims land at 1.30pm; durable goods consensus is -0.5% against a prior +1.1%, claims consensus 202,000 against 196,000. Vistry reports half-year results, with completions expected to fall 11% to around 6,100 homes and a first-half pre-tax loss of around £30m against full-year guidance of around £200m profit.
Friday
German GfK consumer confidence will be reported at 7am and US durable goods orders will be reported at 1:30pm.
JD Sports will be looking to lift sentiment when it releases half-year results next week. Recent trading pointed to a difficult first half with weak consumer demand and softer footwear sales, particularly in North America, contributing to a 0.7% decline in organic sales.
Aarin Chiekrie, Hargreaves Lansdown
| Date | Event | Time (UK) | Consensus/Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | ECB’s Lagarde speaks | 16:00 | No consensus |
| Tuesday | TUI trading statement / ECB’s Buch speaks | —/15:10 | FY guidance €1.1-1.4bn |
| Wednesday | UK flash Composite PMI | 09:30 | 52.3 / 52.5 |
| Wednesday | US flash Composite PMI | 14:45 | 55.2 / 56.0 |
| Thursday | US durable goods orders | 13:30 | -0.5% / +1.1% |
| Thursday | US initial jobless claims | 13:30 | 202,000 / 196,000 |
| Friday | BoE’s Bailey speaks | 10:15 | No consensus |
The calendar clusters around Wednesday and Thursday, with the PMIs the only figures carrying a market consensus, and continuing Fed, ECB and BoE commentary the fixed point beyond this week.