Prudential (LON: PRU) reported earlier today that third-quarter new business profit (NBP) rose 1% to $709m, and that its 2026 group growth guidance is now more stretching. Growth rates are at constant exchange rates (CER) unless stated.
The drag came from CITIC Prudential Life, its Chinese Mainland life business, where NBP fell significantly. New regulations on bancassurance expenses, the costs of selling insurance through banks, constrained sales, and July and August 2025 set a high bar for comparison. Excluding the Chinese Mainland, NBP grew 13% in the quarter and 11% year to date.
Over nine months NBP reached $2,093m, up 6% from $1,981m a year earlier. The NBP margin, profit relative to sales, improved to 44% in the quarter from 41%, which the company attributes to a focus on quality and repricing. Third-quarter APE sales, its measure of new-policy volumes, fell 6% to $1,596m from $1,698m.
Elsewhere the picture was stronger. Bancassurance outside the Chinese Mainland grew more than 20% in the quarter, and Hong Kong delivered double-digit growth despite lower sales volumes. Thailand and Taiwan led growth in the smaller markets, Malaysia and Vietnam grew, while Indonesia and Singapore were slightly down.
Chief executive Anil Wadhwani said momentum had been strong in September and October, but that the Chinese Mainland recovery was slower than hoped:
Encouragingly, in both September and October, we have seen strong momentum in new business profit at a Group level, including in our Chinese Mainland life operations, albeit that the delay in the rate of improvement in momentum in our Chinese Mainland life operations means that achievement of our Group 2026 new business profit growth guidance is now more stretching than anticipated at the time of the Half-Year 2026 Results.
Anil Wadhwani, Chief Executive Officer
Prudential expects full-year Chinese Mainland NBP to be 10% to 15% lower than in 2025, with a return to growth in the fourth quarter barring unforeseen events. It remains focused on double-digit growth across four key financial metrics for 2026 and on its 2027 objectives.
Shareholders also get a larger buyback. Prudential has repurchased $1.0bn of shares in the nine months to the 30th of September, and the programme rises to $1.5bn by year end, following a $0.3bn increase announced with the half-year results.