American Airlines Deepens 2026 Loss Forecast

American Airlines now expects an adjusted loss of $1.00 to $1.60 a share for 2026, a sharp downgrade on its July forecast. The Fort Worth-based carrier (NASDAQ: AAL) reported record third-quarter revenue, according to CNBC, but fuel costs more than absorbed it.

The shares were up about 2.5% at $12.545 in delayed US trading by around 4pm in London, from yesterday’s close of $12.235. That close was about a third below the $18.15 closing high of the 1st of July.

AAL.US

1M 3M 6M 1Y 5Y

Adjusted earnings per share exclude one-off items. In July American guided to anything from a 65 cent loss to a 65 cent profit, so the midpoint of the range has moved from break-even to a loss of $1.30. Revenue rose 19.3% to $16.34bn, but the third-quarter fuel bill climbed 67.5% to $4.64bn.

Chief executive Robert Isom stressed the sales performance.

American delivered record third-quarter revenue and the strongest year-over-year revenue growth in my career, with premium performance leading the way

Robert Isom, American Airlines

The third-quarter net loss was $269m, or 41 cents a share, against $114m, or 17 cents, a year earlier. The adjusted loss of 28 cents matched the 28 cent loss estimate. For the fourth quarter, American guided to an adjusted loss of 50 cents to $1.10 a share and said it will slow capacity growth, the number of seats flown, in 2027.

American joins Delta and Southwest in cutting guidance on fuel. Delta lowered its 2026 adjusted earnings guide on the 9th of October to $5.10 to $5.60 a share from $6.50 to $7.50, and is still profitable. Southwest cut its forecast yesterday after the close.

Airfare is up more than 20% from a year ago, yet that has not been enough to cover the fuel bill. Isom told analysts he has “great confidence” in a return to profit in 2027.