Siemens Energy Set For Strong Q4, But mwb Keeps Sell on ‘Supercycle’ Valuation

mwb Research reiterated its Sell rating and €100 price target on Siemens Energy (ETR: ENR) ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter and full-year results on Nov. 11, telling investors in a note that it expects a strong finish to the year but that the valuation remains too demanding.

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Analyst Leon Mühlenbruch forecasts fourth-quarter revenue of about €13.5 billion, up 30% year over year. He said higher volumes, backlog conversion and operating leverage should drive a sharp improvement in profitability.

For fiscal 2026, mwb expects revenue growth around the midpoint of the company’s guidance of 14% to 16% comparable growth. It sees profitability near the upper end of the 10% to 12% margin guidance.

The firm said AI-driven data center construction, electrification and rising power demand are supporting gas turbine and grid investment. Siemens Energy’s order backlog stood at €162 billion at the end of the third quarter, more than three times annual revenue.

However, mwb warned the cycle is unlikely to last indefinitely. Slower AI adoption, weaker returns on investment, higher interest rates and a softer economy could gradually weigh on new orders.

“SE is an excellent company, but we believe its valuation still assumes an unusually long-lasting supercycle,” Mühlenbruch wrote.

The shares have fallen about 12% in the last three months but are up 10% year-to-date.

“If debate around AI continues and concerns begin to crystallise, SE shares could swing from excessive optimism to excessive pessimism,” the analyst said.

mwb expects momentum to continue at least through 2030. Even so, it said modest signs of easing demand could trigger a sharp reassessment of the stock.