Apple’s Stock Down Pre-Market with NDX Rising – Could Earnings Shift Sentiment?

Apple’s earnings report after the closing bell will attract plenty of attention, both for holders of Apple's stock (NASDAQ: AAPL), and for broader market clues. The stock is down 1.46% in the pre-market, as the broader Nasdaq 100 is rallying, with the QQQ ETF that tracks the index having gained more than 1.8% in the session.

Volatility has hit Apple more than most on tariff news, with a ~30% drop leading into April 8th giving way to a 23% rally in the weeks since as certain policies loosened, and strategic moves by the firm became clearer.

With earnings casting a shadow, two major concerns remain more specifically to Apple; that of tariff-related supply chain risks, and iPhone sales resilience.

Analysts project Q2 2025 revenue of $98.4 billion (up 3.2% year-over-year) and diluted EPS of $1.62, with the Services segment and iPhone 17 pre-orders serving as primary growth drivers. However, the company faces significant margin pressure from newly imposed 145% U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, as nearly 90% of iPhones and 80% of iPads are still assembled in China.  While the company has beaten earnings estimates in nine of the past ten quarters, markets will no doubt scrutinize management’s commentary extra carefully this time around.

Apple’s plan to shift U.S.-bound iPhone production to India by 2026 aims to reduce exposure, though Indian manufacturing costs remain 5–10% higher. Analysts anticipate near-term demand pull-forward as consumers rush to avoid potential price hikes.

The budget-friendly iPhone 16e, launched in March 2025, could offset softening premium device sales in China, where Q1 revenue fell 8% year-over-year. Services revenue growth (up 14% in Q1 2024) and AI integration at June’s Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) may also cushion hardware declines.

The street maintains a Moderate Buy consensus (22 Buy, 11 Hold, 4 Sell ratings) with a $235 average price target. In recent weeks however, the tone has been more mixed from the analyst community, with a split between bullish and bearish commentary.

Recent bullish adjustments from JPMorgan ($245) and Goldman Sachs ($256) cite Services growth and AI-driven product refreshes, whilst Wedbush’s Dan Ives emphasizes Apple’s 2.4 billion iOS installed base as a “downside protection” moat.

On the flip side, both UBS ($210) and Redburn ($230) warn of margin compression from tariff costs and sluggish China demand, whilst Rosenblatt estimates $39.5 billion in potential tariff liabilities.

Apple’s setup leading into earnings is a paradox of risk and opportunity. While technical signals are mixed and macro headwinds persist, the company’s base, capital return program, and innovation pipeline provide some level of downside protection. Post-earnings price action is likely to be volatile, with the $210–$220 zone serving as a key battleground for bulls and bears.