Asana Earnings Loom With Stock Rallying 50% off Lows (NYSE: ASAN) – What Next?

Asana Inc. (NYSE: ASAN), the work management platform, prepares to release its latest set of earnings after the closing bell, with the stock rallying strongly over the past few months. Asana's stock price, trading at $18.84, is up 2.45% on the day leading into the print, yet the 50% rally off March lows has been nothing short of impressive.

Despite the recent momentum, such was the decline at the start of the year, that 2025 continues to be a year of negative returns for the stock, down 5% YTD.

The company's stock performance reflects a complex interplay of positive momentum, strategic initiatives, while the all the while containing lingering analyst skepticism. While recent earnings reports have inspired confidence, the path ahead remains uncertain.

Analysts estimate an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.02, a notable improvement from the -$0.06 reported in the same quarter last year, with revenue expected to come in at $185.4million. Asana's guidance for Q1 FY2026 projected revenue between $184.5 million and $186.5 million, indicating a 7% to 8% year-over-year growth. For the full fiscal year 2026, the company anticipates revenue between $782 million and $790 million, representing an 8% to 9% growth. The expectation of a non-GAAP operating margin of at least 5% for the fiscal year is a positive signal for future profitability.

The company has surprised to the upside on EPS in each of the past four earnings prints, leading markets to look for more of the same. Positive surprises suggest that Asana's management is effectively controlling costs and driving efficiency, even amidst macroeconomic headwinds.

Customer growth remains a significant driver. Asana boasts a growing base of high-value customers, with those spending over $5,000 annually increasing by 11% and those spending over $100,000 annually growing by 20%. A dollar-based net retention rate of 96%, with core customers at 97%, indicates strong customer loyalty and the effectiveness of Asana's platform in retaining and expanding its user base.

A pivotal strategic move has been the launch of AI Studio. CEO Dustin Moskovitz has positioned AI Studio not just as a new revenue stream, but as a fundamental shift in how Asana delivers value. The early adoption and demand across various sectors demonstrate the potential of AI to transform work processes and solidify Asana's position as a leader in the evolving work management landscape.

However, analyst opinions are far from uniform. The current consensus reflects a cautious outlook, with 6 Buy ratings, 10 Hold ratings, and 2 Sell ratings. The average analyst price target stands at $15.38, significantly below the current trading price.

This suggests that, on average, analysts believe the stock is currently overvalued, despite the recent positive momentum. It is important to note, however, that analyst ratings are lagging indicators and often slow to adjust to rapidly changing company fundamentals. Some firms, like Morgan Stanley, JMP Securities and DA Davidson, have recently raised their price targets, reflecting a more optimistic view following the Q4 earnings report. KeyBanc also upgraded Asana, signaling increased confidence in the company's prospects.

The recent rally off lows have been impressive indeed, but there remains ground to be made up if Asana is to return to green territory on the year. All eyes on the print!