Aston Martin Shares Drop: Revises FY 2025 Guidance Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds

Aston Martin Lagonda (LON: AML) shares tumbled on Monday after the company revised its FY 2025 guidance, citing a challenging global macroeconomic environment.

The luxury automaker now anticipates a mid-to-high single-digit percentage decline in total wholesale volumes compared to FY 2024 (6,030 units).

The adjustment is said to reflect a strategy focused on balancing wholesale and retail demand amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

The company confirmed that Valhalla deliveries are expected to commence in Q4 2025, with approximately 150 units slated for delivery. While this is behind previous expectations, the company anticipates a smooth delivery profile in 2026. Management has initiated a review of future cost and capital expenditure.

Q3 2025 saw Aston Martin deliver approximately 1,430 wholesale units, falling short of previous guidance that projected figures similar to Q3 2024 (1,641 units).

Weaker-than-expected demand, particularly in North America—impacted by tariffs—and the APAC region, including Greater China, contributed to the shortfall. Retail volumes mirrored wholesale figures.

Valhalla production commenced in Q3 2025, with a gradual volume ramp-up planned through year-end. Initial customer deliveries remain on track for Q4 2025, albeit with a slight delay related to vehicle engineering completion and homologation approvals. Consequently, the company expects to reduce Valhalla wholesales in Q4 2025 to approximately 150 units.

Additional risks to the FY 2025 delivery schedule are said to persist, linked to the potential impact of the ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown on final U.S. homologation timing and the uncertainty introduced by the U.S. tariff quota system.

Aston Martin completed the sale of shares in AMR GP in Q3 2025, receiving gross proceeds of approximately £108 million, boosting total liquidity to approximately £250 million.

The industry faces uncertainties stemming from the economic impact of U.S. tariffs and the implementation of the quota mechanism, changes to China's ultra-luxury car taxes, and potential supply chain pressures, exacerbated by a recent cyber incident at a major UK automotive manufacturer.

Q4 2025 is expected to show improved sequential financial performance, supported by increased core volumes driven by new derivatives and the financial contribution from initial Valhalla deliveries.

However, the company no longer expects to meet its previous FY 2025 wholesale volume guidance, given Q3 2025 performance and revised Q4 2025 expectations.

Aston Martin now expects FY 2025 adjusted EBIT to fall below the lower end of market consensus (consensus adjusted EBIT low end: £(110)m), driven by weaker volumes and pressure on gross margin per vehicle. FY 2025 capex is now projected to decrease to approximately £375 million (previously approximately £400 million), while SG&A remains on track to decline by approximately 10% compared to FY 2024 (£313 million).

Despite these measures, the company no longer anticipates positive free cash flow generation in H2 2025 but expects sequential improvement in Q4 2025.

The Group expects FY 2026 profitability and free cash flow generation to materially improve compared with FY 2025. This will be driven by consistent contribution from Valhalla deliveries in addition to ongoing cost reduction programmes benefiting SG&A.

A comprehensive review of future cost and capital expenditures is underway, including an assessment of the future product cycle plan in response to market and regulatory dynamics. This is expected to lead to lower capital investment in engineering and development than previously guided (FY 2025 to FY 2029: approximately £2 billion).