Berenberg Upgrades Rio Tinto Shares to Buy, Lifts Target to 8,600p

Berenberg raised its rating on Rio Tinto (LON: RIO) to “Buy” from “Hold” on Thursday, July 30, 2026, citing an improved cash flow outlook and what it called a compelling valuation for the Anglo-Australian mining giant.

Analyst Richard Hatch lifted the broker’s price target to 8,600p from 8,100p, implying meaningful upside from current levels. Berenberg’s separate US dollar-denominated target was also raised, to $113 from $107.

The upgrade came a day after Rio Tinto published its first-half 2026 results, in which the company reported record Pilbara iron ore shipments, raised H1 sales guidance, and reaffirmed full-year production targets despite facing higher energy costs. That update appears to have reassured analysts about the group’s near-term operational momentum and free cash flow generation, even as commodity markets remain mixed.

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Rio Tinto shares reacted positively to the twin catalysts, climbing over 3% in London trading on Thursday to around 7,244p, as investors welcomed both the earnings beat and the broker upgrade. Berenberg was not alone in turning more constructive: at least one other major brokerage also moved to a Buy rating on the stock the same day, pointing to similar valuation and cash-flow arguments.

The upgrade adds to a string of positive newsflow for Rio Tinto this year, including progress updates on the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which analysts see as a key long-term growth driver. With shares still trading well below Berenberg’s new target, the note suggests the market may be underappreciating Rio Tinto’s earnings resilience and balance sheet strength heading into the second half of 2026.