Boeing Stock Price Eases Recent Pressure Ahead of Q1 Earnings

Boeing's stock (NYSE: BA) has extended the rally of the lows to more than 15%. with a 0.38% pre-market gain this morning bringing the price back above $157.

Despite the recent bounce, the Boeing stock price has fallen 8.96% since the start of the year, and has significantly underperformed broader markets over the past 5 years. The meagre1.6% appreciation compares very poorly to the S&P 500's return of 83.53% over the same period. The stock's 52-week range of $137.03 to $196.95 highlights its significant price swings, a characteristic underscored by its beta of approximately 1.53, indicating higher volatility compared to the overall market.

From a technical standpoint, the signals are mixed but lean towards caution. Boeing is currently trading below its 50-day moving average,a level often interpreted by analysts as a short-term bearish indicator. T

Markets are now moving towards Boeing's forthcoming Q1 2025 earnings report, expected next week (April 23rd, before the opening bell). Consensus estimates paint a picture of continued financial difficulty. Analysts forecast another quarter of negative earnings per share (EPS), with the consensus looking for -$1.28 per share. Revenue forecasts for the quarter are around the $19.86 billion mark.

These expectations follow a particularly challenging fourth quarter of 2024, reported in late January. Boeing posted a substantial adjusted loss of $5.90 per share, significantly missing analyst estimates which had ranged from -$1.60 to -$3.25. Revenue for Q4 2024 also came in short at $15.24 billion, below the consensus range of roughly $15.7 billion to $17 billion. At the time, the company attributed the disappointing results to impacts from an IAM work stoppage, charges on key defense programs, and costs associated with workforce reductions – factors highlighting the operational pressures it faces.

Despite these headwinds and a recorded annual net loss of $11.82 billion on $66.52 billion in revenue, Boeing retains fundamental strengths that bulls point to. Chief among these is its colossal order backlog, valued at over $521 billion and including firm orders for more than 5,500 commercial airplanes. This backlog underscores robust long-term demand for its aircraft, particularly the 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliner families.

Recent contract wins, such as a $2.46 billion modification from the U.S. Air Force for C-17 transport sustainment and a notable order for 50 737 MAX jets from aircraft lessor BOC Aviation, provide tangible evidence of ongoing business momentum. Furthermore, Boeing's management has publicly targeted significant cash flow improvement throughout 2025, aiming to achieve positive cash flow during the second half of the year – a critical goal for restoring investor confidence.

However, the path forward remains complex. Boeing continues to grapple with stabilising its production systems and rebuilding trust following past manufacturing quality issues, particularly concerning the 737 MAX and 787 programs. The suspension of its dividend payments since early 2020 also deters income-focused investors.

🟩 The Bull Case for NYSE: BA

• Massive Order Backlog: A backlog exceeding $521 billion, encompassing over 5,500 commercial jets, signals years of future revenue and strong underlying demand.
• Recent Contract Momentum: Securing significant deals like the $2.46B USAF C-17 sustainment contract and the 50-jet 737 MAX order from BOC Aviation demonstrates continued commercial and defense activity.
• Cash Flow Improvement Target: Management's stated goal of returning to positive cash flow in the latter half of 2025, if achieved, would be a major positive catalyst.
• Dominant Market Position: As one of only two major global manufacturers of large commercial aircraft, Boeing holds a strong long-term strategic advantage.
• Potential Technical Floor: The stock price is hovering near its 200-day moving average, a level some traders view as potential technical support.

🟥 The Bear Case for NYSE: BA

• Weak Stock Performance: Consistent share price declines over the past 1, 3, and 12 months, significantly underperforming the broader market and aerospace/defense sector.
• Persistent Earnings Pressure: A significant earnings miss in Q4 2024 is expected to be followed by another quarter of substantial losses (negative EPS) in Q1 2025, based on consensus forecasts.
• Substantial Financial Losses: The company reported a large annual net loss of $11.82 billion in its latest full-year results.
• Operational & Reputational Challenges: Ongoing difficulties in stabilizing production rates and fully restoring confidence after previous manufacturing and quality control issues remain significant hurdles.
• Negative Technical Signals: The stock trades below its 50-day moving average, a commonly watched bearish short-term indicator.
• Elevated Volatility: A beta of ~1.53 indicates the stock is significantly more volatile than the market average, increasing risk.
• Lack of Dividend: The suspension of dividend payments since early 2020 makes the stock less attractive to income-oriented investors.

As the Q1 earnings date approaches, investors and analysts will be scrutinizing the results not just for the headline EPS and revenue figures, but for concrete evidence of progress in stabilizing production, improving delivery rates, managing costs effectively, and translating the massive backlog into improved financial performance.