Boeing Stock (BA) Rally Takes a Breather – Earnings Could Provide Direction

Boeing stock (NYSE:BA) are trading at $224.50 in pre-market hours, up a modest 0.15% from the previous close. This comes ahead of the company's highly anticipated third-quarter 2025 earnings release, scheduled for tomorrow. While the stock has enjoyed a significant run-up over the past year, markets are now holding their breath, waiting to see if the earnings report will justify the recent gains and provide a catalyst for further appreciation, or signal a potential pullback.

Analysts are projecting a loss of -$2.38 per share for Q3 2025, with revenue expected to be around $22.13 billion. This contrasts with the previous quarter, where Boeing reported a loss of -$1.24 per share, missing estimates, but saw a 34.9% year-over-year revenue increase to $22.75 billion. The market will be scrutinizing these numbers, paying close attention to any commentary from CEO Kelly Ortberg and CFO Jay Malave during the earnings call scheduled for 10:30 a.m. ET.

One factor contributing to market uncertainty is Boeing's plan to ramp up production of its 737 MAX aircraft to 42 jets per month. While this signals confidence in demand and a return to normalcy after past production challenges, the increase is contingent on FAA approval. Any delays or setbacks in this process could negatively impact market sentiment.

Adding to the complexity is the ongoing labor strike involving approximately 3,200 Boeing defense workers in Illinois and Missouri. The strike, now nearing its third month, is centered on demands for better wages and retirement benefits. While Boeing has implemented contingency plans, the prolonged disruption poses a significant challenge to the company's financial recovery and its ability to meet production targets.

Despite the challenges, analysts maintain a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating on Boeing's stock, with an average price target of $240.20. This suggests that, on average, analysts believe the stock has further upside potential. However, it's important to note that these estimates are subject to change and should be viewed with caution.

While the consensus seems to be cautiously optimistic, a more skeptical perspective is warranted. The market might be overlooking the long-term implications of the ongoing supply chain disruptions and rising input costs. Even if Boeing manages to increase 737 MAX production, can it do so profitably given the current inflationary environment?

Furthermore, the labor strike, while seemingly contained, could be a symptom of deeper issues within the company's workforce, potentially leading to further disruptions down the line. Perhaps the projected earnings increases are overly optimistic, failing to account for these persistent headwinds. A correction in the stock price might be in order if the market's expectations are not met.

Boeing's stock is at a critical juncture. The upcoming earnings report will be a key determinant of its future direction. The confluence of increased production targets, ongoing labor disputes, and fluctuating analyst expectations creates a complex and uncertain outlook for the aerospace giant. The next few days will be telling.