Bristol-Myers Stock (BMY) Breaking Out As Earnings Await – What To Expect

Bristol-Myers stock (NYSE:BMY) has quietly moved into breakout territory above the $57 resistance level, sitting at $57.42 ahead of this morning’s earnings. This comes on the back of a 25.67% rally in the BMY stock price over the past 6 months.

Wall Street will be watching earnings closely this morning to see if the company’s growth portfolio can deliver the acceleration necessary to offset accelerating loss-of-exclusivity headwinds in 2026.

Consensus sits at $1.52 adjusted EPS on $11.80B revenue, both below the company’s full-year guidance midpoint, implying a Q4 beat is required simply to meet prior expectations.

The setup reflects a year-long tension between quarterly execution and medium-term credibility. BMY beat estimates in all four reported quarters of 2025, including a 33% EPS surprise in Q2, yet shares declined 8.1% over the past year as investors discounted legacy-sourced beats and demanded proof that newer assets can compress the post-LOE valley.

Leerink Partners’ recent 29% reduction in Q4 EPS estimates to $1.19 (citing $1.39B in IPR&D expenses) underscores the accounting volatility that complicates earnings power assessment.

The market’s reaction function has shifted from “did they beat?” to “what quality of beat?” Q2’s sharp revenue and EPS outperformance triggered a 5% selloff because strength came from legacy resilience (Eliquis, Revlimid) rather than growth-portfolio scaling. Q3’s more modest beat drove shares up 3.5% because management raised the revenue outlook again and highlighted newer-product momentum.

The Q4 result will be judged less on the absolute beat/miss and more on whether management frames 2026 as a manageable transition or a deeper earnings valley.

Consensus Estimates

The consensus EPS of $1.52 implies Q4 must deliver roughly $1.50 to meet management’s full-year $6.50 midpoint, given $4.89 earned through Q3. The estimate sits 16% below Q4 2024’s $1.80, reflecting the impact of generic erosion on legacy products and anticipated IPR&D charges. Leerink’s $1.19 estimate incorporates $1.39B in IPR&D expenses tied to the BioNTech partnership and $222M in licensing income, suggesting significant below-the-line volatility.

Revenue consensus of $11.80B sits roughly in line with management’s implied Q4 requirement to reach the $47.75B full-year midpoint. The year-over-year decline of 0.8% masks divergent trends: growth products (Opdivo, Reblozyl, Breyanzi, Camzyos) are expected to post double-digit gains, while legacy products (Revlimid, Sprycel, Abraxane) face accelerating generic pressure.

Management Guidance and Commentary

“We raised our 2025 revenue outlook again to $47.5 billion to $48.0 billion, reflecting continued momentum across our growth portfolio.”

Management’s Q3 guidance update lifted the revenue range for the fourth consecutive quarter, signaling confidence that newer products are gaining traction faster than legacy products are eroding. The company maintained its adjusted EPS range of $6.40 to $6.60 despite the revenue increase, a function of the BioNTech partnership IPR&D charge flowing through the model.

The gap between consensus and guidance has narrowed over the year. In February 2025, Street expectations for full-year EPS sat at $6.92; by July, that figure had reset to $6.24 following the BioNTech charge announcement. This pattern reflects the market’s gradual acceptance that BMY’s earnings power is being shaped as much by deal accounting and reinvestment as by product performance.

Analyst Price Targets & Ratings

Wall Street sentiment remains cautiously neutral, with 50% of analysts rating shares a Hold. The consensus target of $58.04 implies minimal upside from current levels, reflecting uncertainty about the company’s ability to navigate the LOE valley. The concentration in Hold ratings suggests analysts are waiting for clearer visibility into 2026 guidance before taking stronger positions.

Sector & Peer Comparison

BMY trades at a forward P/E of 9.1x, a 36% discount to the large-cap pharma peer average and the lowest multiple in the group excluding Pfizer. The discount reflects investor skepticism about the company’s ability to sustain earnings growth as Revlimid, Pomalyst, and Sprycel face accelerating generic competition in 2026 and 2027. AbbVie, facing similar LOE dynamics with Humira, trades at a 41% premium on a forward basis, suggesting the market assigns more credibility to AbbVie’s post-LOE bridge.

Twelve registrational data readings expected in 2026 could validate growth portfolio durability

Earnings Track Record

BMY has beaten revenue estimates in every quarter over the past two years by an average of 5%, demonstrating consistent execution on the top line. The EPS track record shows more volatility, with a 75% beat rate over the past 20 quarters but significant variation in surprise magnitude due to deal-related charges and IPR&D expenses. The Q3 2025 miss of 3.6% broke a four-quarter beat streak but came on revenue that exceeded estimates, illustrating the disconnect between operational performance and GAAP accounting.

Post-Earnings Price Movement History

The historical price reaction data reveals a counterintuitive pattern: beats have generated an average next-day move of 1.7%, while misses have produced an average move of 3.0%. This inversion reflects the market’s focus on guidance and narrative rather than reported results. Q3 2025’s 3.6% miss triggered a 7.4% gain because management raised the revenue outlook and highlighted growth-portfolio momentum, validating the thesis that newer products are scaling.

Expected Move & Implied Volatility

The options market is pricing a 3.8% move in either direction, above BMY’s historical average post-earnings move of 2.2% and in line with the 3.5% average for large-cap pharma. The elevated expectation reflects uncertainty around the 2026 guidance framework and the potential for management to quantify LOE headwinds more explicitly.

Expert Predictions & What to Watch

Key Outlook: Guidance Will Drive the Trade

Key Metrics to Watch

Management’s 2026 framework will determine whether the market extends or compresses the LOE valley

The 2026 guidance framework is the single most important output from the Q4 call. Management has raised revenue guidance in each of the past four quarters, demonstrating that the growth portfolio is gaining traction, but the market needs to see that traction quantified in a full-year 2026 outlook. A revenue guide of $45.0B-$46.5B would imply the company can grow or hold flat despite Revlimid declining by an estimated $2.0-$2.5B, a credible outcome that would support the stock.

Operating margin guidance will determine whether BMY can convert revenue stability into earnings growth. The company’s productivity initiatives are expected to deliver $1.5B in savings over the next two years, but reinvestment in pipeline development and commercial infrastructure will consume a portion of those savings. Margin guidance of 32.0-33.5% would demonstrate operating leverage and support EPS growth even on flat revenue.

For investors looking to gain exposure to pharmaceutical stocks, understanding the distinction between trading vs investing approaches is crucial when considering BMY’s transition period.