Chipotle Mexican Grill Earnings on Deck – (CMG) Stock Hits $40 Resistance Leading In

Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock (NYSE:CMG) is currently trading at $38.68 ahead of earnings, 33.76% lower than this time last year. The stock has been building some momentum however, 30% up from November's low, despite finding the $40 resistance difficult to hold in recent sessions. With that in mind, what can we expect from today's print?

EPS estimates are pegged at $0.24, a mild dip on the same quarter Y/Y at $0.25. Revenue is expected to have grown 4.23%, with the consensus expectation for $2.97B on the quarter.

From a technical perspective, the stock's 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is $36.74, while the 200-day SMA is $43.24. The current price sits above the 50-day SMA, suggesting short-term bullish momentum, but remains below the 200-day SMA, indicating longer-term bearish pressure. This technical setup paints a mixed picture for investors.

Recent developments have significantly shaped investor sentiment toward CMG. The third-quarter 2025 earnings report, released on October 29, 2025, revealed a 7.5% increase in total revenue, reaching $3.0 billion. However, comparable restaurant sales only grew by 0.3%, a concerning slowdown. The operating margin also contracted, falling to 15.9% from 16.9% in the previous year.

Following the Q3 report, Chipotle revised its full-year same-store sales forecast to a low-single-digit decline, citing “persistent macroeconomic pressures.” This announcement resulted in a substantial stock price drop of approximately 13% in extended trading, highlighting investor sensitivity to signs of slowing growth.

The key focus for investors will be on Chipotle's ability to maintain profitability and drive sales growth in a challenging economic environment. The expected decline in EPS for the upcoming quarter raises concerns about the company's ability to manage costs and maintain pricing power. 

Chipotle faces several headwinds, including rising labor costs, supply chain disruptions, and increased competition in the fast-casual dining sector. The company's ability to innovate and adapt to changing consumer preferences will be crucial for its long-term success. 

The $40 resistance level represents a critical technical barrier for CMG. A sustained break above this level could signal a shift in investor sentiment and pave the way for further gains. However, failure to break through this resistance could indicate that the stock is likely to remain range-bound in the near term.