Close Brothers shares (LON:CBG) have fallen back below 500p today, down 3.8% as a downgrade from RBC Capital Markets hits sentiment. The analyst firm moved from “Outperform” to “Sector Perform,” despite maintaining a price target of 525p. The revision follows a substantial 120% surge in the company’s share value since the start of the year, prompting valuation concerns.
The markets reacted to the adjustment, reflecting a period of recalibration after the stock’s significant gains. While the price target remains neutral, the downgrade suggests a tempered outlook on further appreciation in the near term.
RBC Capital’s decision is rooted in the stock’s current trading level of 0.56 times the one-year forward tangible book value, a figure considerably lower than its historical average of 1.56 times. This suggests that the market may have already priced in much of the company’s potential upside.
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Furthermore, the recent UK Supreme Court ruling concerning motor finance commissions is a salient factor for the sector. Close Brothers has proactively allocated £165 million in provisions to address potential liabilities stemming from the ruling, aligning closely with RBC’s projected impact of £170 million.
Looking ahead, RBC forecasts an adjusted return on tangible equity of 6% for fiscal year 2025, which is expected to decrease to 5.6% in 2026 before rebounding to 7.3% in 2027. Dividend payments are projected to resume in 2027 at 30p per share, translating to a 5.8% yield.
In related news, Close Brothers Group finalized the sale of Winterflood Securities to Marex Group plc for approximately £100 million in July. This divestiture aligns with the company’s strategic objective to streamline operations and concentrate on its core business segments.
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