Daimler Truck Shares: mwb Research Stays Bearish Despite Guidance Upgrade

mwb Research reiterated a Sell rating on Daimler Truck Holding (ETR: DTG) shares in a note on Thursday after mixed preliminary second-quarter results, while raising its price target on the stock to 33 euros from 30 euros.

The new target implied about 25% downside from Wednesday’s closing price of 44.04 euros.

Analyst Leon Mühlenbruch summarized the quarter as “Earnings soft, cash flow the clear highlight.”

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Industrial Business revenue fell 3% year over year to 11.42 billion euros, roughly 1% below consensus, and adjusted group EBIT dropped 25% to 838 million euros, missing estimates by about 5%.

Industrial Business free cash flow reached 1.76 billion euros, nearly three times the 611 million euros expected, which mwb Research called “the clear positive surprise.”

By segment, Trucks North America delivered adjusted EBIT of 435 million euros with an adjusted return on sales of 8.4%, above the 7.9% consensus, as pricing, mix and cost control partly offset weaker volumes, noted mwb Research.

Mercedes-Benz Trucks posted adjusted EBIT of 317 million euros and a 6.0% margin against 6.4% expected, reflecting softer demand and negative operating leverage. Daimler Buses and Financial Services both came in ahead of forecasts.

The company lifted its 2026 adjusted group EBIT guidance to 3.6 billion to 4.1 billion euros from 3.2 billion to 3.7 billion euros and raised unit sales guidance to 340,000-370,000 from 330,000-360,000.

Still, mwb Research views the improvement “mainly as a catch-up effect from ageing fleets rather than a sustained upturn,” and flagged structural risk from Chinese electric-truck rivals.

“Structural risks from Chinese electric-truck competitors also remain, as aggressive pricing could pressure volumes and margins despite the improved cost base,” Mühlenbruch concluded.