Hims & Hers Stock Under Pressure Into Earnings – What To Expect

Hims & Hers stock (NYSE: HIMS) is under plenty of pressure ahead of earnings today, 53.22% lower YTD, and making fresh multi year lows ahead of the print. The company reports fourth-quarter 2025 results after market close, with expectations more muted than in recent times.

Consensus sits at $579.85M revenue and $0.10 EPS, both below the company’s prior $615M revenue guide midpoint, reflecting analyst caution around GLP-1 regulatory risk and margin pressure from elevated operating expenses.

Management’s November guidance called for $605M to $625M in fourth-quarter revenue, yet consensus has settled 5.7% below the midpoint at $579.85M. This gap suggests the Street has already priced in GLP-1 deceleration and legal overhang.

EPS expectations of $0.10 represent a 68.2% decline from the prior-year $0.32, driven by margin compression from fulfillment investments, international expansion costs, and the $1.15B Eucalyptus acquisition announced February 19.

The result will determine whether the platform’s core telehealth verticals can sustain growth independent of weight-loss economics, and whether management can frame the Novo lawsuit as a manageable constraint rather than an existential threat to the business model.

Consensus Estimates

Consensus revenue of $579.85M sits 5.7% below management’s November guide midpoint of $615M, indicating the Street has already discounted GLP-1 headwinds and legal uncertainty. The $23.29M estimate range is narrow relative to the guidance band, suggesting analysts have converged on a cautious baseline. EPS expectations of $0.10 reflect a sharp 68.2% year-over-year decline despite 44.4% revenue growth, driven by margin compression from fulfillment infrastructure, international expansion costs tied to the Eucalyptus deal, and elevated marketing spend to sustain subscriber growth outside weight loss.

Management Guidance & Commentary

“Healthcare challenges are global, and so is the demand for simpler, transparent, and more personalized healthcare. We believe this puts us on the path to becoming the leading global consumer health platform, where everyone can access the best care for their needs, regardless of where they live.”

Management’s November 3 guidance set fourth-quarter revenue at $605M to $625M (midpoint $615M) and tightened full-year 2025 revenue to $2.335B to $2.355B. The fourth-quarter midpoint implied 28.7% year-over-year growth, down from the 49.2% delivered in the third quarter, signaling anticipated deceleration. The company emphasized subscriber growth and higher monthly online revenue per average subscriber ($80 in Q3) as evidence that platform strength extends beyond GLP-1.

Analyst Price Targets & Ratings

Wall Street remains cautiously optimistic despite recent volatility, with 69% of analysts rating shares a Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus target of $27.46 implies 75.7% upside from current levels, though this reflects pre-lawsuit price targets that may face downward revision pending legal clarity.

Sector & Peer Comparison

Hims trades at a 54.1 forward P/E, a significant premium to GoodRx’s 16.2 and Progyny’s 19.8, reflecting expectations for sustained high growth despite near-term margin pressure. The valuation gap is justified by Hims’ 44.4% year-over-year revenue growth versus GoodRx’s single-digit expansion and Progyny’s mid-teens trajectory. However, the forward multiple has expanded as EPS estimates have compressed, creating vulnerability if the company cannot demonstrate improving unit economics.

Earnings Track Record

The 55.0% beat rate and +48.2% average surprise mask significant volatility in execution. The most recent quarter (Q3 2025) delivered a 40.0% EPS miss despite a revenue beat, indicating margin pressure overwhelmed top-line momentum. The pattern over the trailing four quarters shows revenue consistently exceeding expectations while EPS has become increasingly erratic, reflecting the company’s transition from a high-margin sexual health platform to a more complex, lower-margin weight-loss business.

Post-Earnings Price Movement History

The +1.5% average next-day move masks a critical pattern: guidance and forward commentary have increasingly overridden reported results. The Q2 2025 EPS beat of 13.3% resulted in a 2.9% decline as management’s Q3 revenue guide came in below consensus. The implication for the upcoming print is clear: the stock will trade on management’s ability to frame GLP-1 headwinds as transitional and to articulate a credible path to margin expansion through international scale and AI-driven efficiency.

Expected Move & Implied Volatility

The 12.5% implied move significantly exceeds the +1.5% historical average next-day reaction, indicating options traders are pricing in elevated binary risk around the Novo Nordisk lawsuit and management’s ability to articulate a credible forward path. The 82nd percentile IV rank suggests volatility is elevated relative to the stock’s own history, consistent with the 46% decline over the past month and the unresolved legal overhang.

Expert Predictions & What to Watch

Key Outlook: Platform Resilience Under Legal Scrutiny

The fourth quarter will determine whether Hims can transition from a GLP-1 growth story to a diversified telehealth platform narrative. The Novo Nordisk lawsuit filed February 9 has created an overhang that cannot be resolved in a single earnings call, but management can either stabilize sentiment by demonstrating resilience across sexual health, dermatology, and new verticals, or compound uncertainty by acknowledging material GLP-1 deceleration without a clear offset.

Key Metrics to Watch

The most critical variable is whether management can demonstrate that subscriber growth and MORPAS remain intact across non-GLP-1 verticals. If total subscribers reach 2.55M or higher and MORPAS holds at $80 or above, the market will likely interpret the result as evidence that the platform’s core value proposition is resilient. Conversely, if subscriber growth decelerates or MORPAS compresses, it would suggest the GLP-1 tailwind was masking underlying weakness in customer acquisition or retention.