HSBC Shares: Analysts See Guidance Strength and 2026 Upside After Earnings Beat

HSBC (LON: HSBA) shares surged almost 8% Wednesday following the bank's 2025 annual report, with analysts highlighting stronger-than-expected results, upbeat forward guidance, and the implications of the bank’s recently approved Hang Seng Bank merger.

The bank posted a 9 percent profit beat, prompting Hargreaves Lansdown to say the update “told a familiar, reassuring story… the engine is still humming and management confidence is quietly building.”

The firm noted that the beat reflected “core banking momentum rather than one-offs,” and said guidance now points to “stronger earnings power and returns as we move into 2026.”

Citi’s Andrew Coombs said the numbers imply “roughly 6% upside to the forecasts for 2026,” adding that the Hang Seng Bank merger should support further growth.

Coombs wrote that “HSBC is a consensus long – but those longs should be vindicated today.”

Management again defended the Hang Seng purchase, which delays share buybacks for several quarters.

Hargreaves Lansdown called the strategy logical but stressed the pressure to deliver the expected $0.9 billion in benefits given the sizable $0.6 billion integration cost.

The analysts also highlighted HSBC’s broader restructuring, including exits from France, Canada and Argentina, alongside a planned $3 billion cost-reduction program.

Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, said the stronger guidance reflects “management confidence” in the trajectory of Hong Kong interest rates and deposit growth.

The firm raised its earnings estimate by 10 percent and lifted its price target to 1,409p from 1,315p, maintaining an Equal Weight rating.

Hargreaves Lansdown said the bank’s fee-income businesses, especially trading and wealth management, will be key to achieving medium-term targets, noting HSBC’s strong Asian footprint and solid capital position despite near-term rebuilding needs.