Humana’s Stock Remains Green YTD With Earnings on Deck – What to Expect

Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM), a leading player in the managed healthcare sector, reports first-quarter earnings before today's opening bell, with markets expected to scrutinise for insights into the impacts of recent policy shifts and operational strategies.

After missing on EPS last time out (-$2.16 against -$2.12), markets are expecting a far more positive quarter for the company, with earnings per share expected to come in at $10.07. Revenue for the period is expected to have grown to $32.22 billion, a significant gain on the $29.21 billion reported in the previous period.

Humana's stock has come into the print off the back of some turbulence, with a three day negative streak indicating some trepidation as earnings loom large. Despite some of the recent whipsaw in sentiment, the stock remains green YTD, up 2.66% as broader markets continue to remain negative on the year.

A significant drop in the stock on April 17th saw shares tumble 7.4%, amid broader sector concerns regarding rising Medicare costs – a persistent theme impacting investor sentiment towards managed care organisations.

However, the narrative earlier in the month was decidedly more positive. On April 8th, Humana shares surged between 9% and 10.5%, briefly touching $339, propelled by favourable updates to Medicare Advantage (MA) payment policies for 2025. This development, perceived by analysts like those at Wolfe Research (who subsequently upgraded their price target) as potentially bolstering margins for MA providers, triggered a sector-wide rally and highlighted Humana's sensitivity to regulatory dynamics within its core market.

Beyond market fluctuations and policy impacts, Humana has actively pursued strategic initiatives aimed at strengthening its long-term position. The company announced a collaboration with Icon Health to integrate advanced musculoskeletal care services within more than 60 of its CenterWell senior-focused primary care centers. Furthermore, Humana expanded its primary care footprint by launching new CenterWell clinics adjacent to Walmart locations in four states, beginning with Missouri, a move designed to enhance healthcare accessibility for seniors.

Leadership and financial stewardship have also been in focus. The appointment of Gabriella Reuterswärd as Chief Marketing Officer signals a potential renewed emphasis on brand strategy and market communication. Furthermore, on April 17th, Humana declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.88 per share, payable on July 26, 2025, reinforcing its commitment to returning value to shareholders.

While recent performance and strategic moves offer positive points, significant risks remain. Ongoing litigation between Humana and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) concerning Medicare Advantage Star Ratings poses a potential headwind. An unfavorable outcome could have material financial implications, particularly impacting projections for fiscal year 2026, making it a key factor for investors to monitor closely.

Analyst consensus reflects this mixed picture. The average 12-month price target currently stands at $284.90, suggesting moderate upside from the April 24th closing price. However, the forecast range is wide, spanning from $267.41 to $326.00, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the stock's near-to-medium-term trajectory given the interplay of regulatory factors, cost pressures, and strategic execution.