ICICI Bank Shares Near Record Highs Having Found Support: Is a Breakout Imminent?

ICICI Bank shares (NSE: ICICIBANK) are once again flirting with its all-time high, fueling speculation about a potential breakout that could propel the stock to new heights. As of June 26, the stock closed at ₹1,440, marking a steady climb over the past week and positioning it tantalizingly close to its recent peak of ₹1,471.60 after a 1% (+14.20) gain on the day.

The past month has seen ICICI Bank pull back from highs, only to find support at the ₹1,400 range to consistently trade above ₹1,420. This upward trajectory reflects strong buying interest and positive market sentiment surrounding the bank. A year ago, the stock traded around ₹1,200, highlighting an impressive 18.23% annual gain.

This consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows over the past year firmly establishes a bullish trend for ICICI Bank.

Adding to the bullish narrative are the bank's robust financial results. The latest quarterly performance (March 2025) showcased a standalone total income of ₹49,691 crore, up from ₹48,368 crore in the previous quarter. Net profit also saw a healthy increase, rising to ₹12,630 crore from ₹11,792 crore.

The bank's annual performance for FY25 was equally impressive, with a total income of ₹191,770 crore, a net profit of ₹47,227 crore, and a return on assets (ROA) of 2.41%. These strong financial metrics are undoubtedly fueling investor confidence and contributing to the stock's upward momentum.

Analysts have been quick to recognize ICICI Bank's strong performance and potential. Citi, for instance, has reiterated ICICI Bank as a “top pick,” raising its target price to ₹1,600. This bullish outlook reflects confidence in the bank's growth trajectory, market position, and improving asset quality.

Bull Case:

• Strong financial performance with consistent growth in income and profits.
• Positive analyst ratings and target price upgrades.
• Bullish technical indicators, including trading above key moving averages.
• Strong sector sentiment and overall positive market outlook.
• Potential breakout above ₹1,460–₹1,465 resistance level.

Bear Case:

• Potential disappointment in upcoming earnings report.
• Broader market volatility and macroeconomic risks.
• Failure to break through the ₹1,460–₹1,465 resistance level.
• Possible profit-taking after the recent rally.
• Unforeseen negative news or events impacting the banking sector.

However, it's crucial to acknowledge the potential risks and challenges that could derail the bullish scenario. Any disappointment in earnings could trigger a sell-off and negate the potential breakout. Furthermore, broader market volatility and macroeconomic factors could also impact the stock's performance.

The key level to watch remains the ₹1,460–₹1,465 resistance zone. A decisive close above this level could trigger a breakout to new highs, supported by bullish technicals and strong sector sentiment.

Conversely, failure to break through this resistance could lead to a period of consolidation or even a correction.