Intuitive Machines Stock (LUNR) Firmly Off Lows, ARK Invest Buying More

Intuitive Machines' stock (NASDAQ: LUNR) has captured the spotlight on Wall Street this year, following flip flopping sentiment that has seen the price first plunge more than 65% into early March, only to rally 88% from that point until today.

With the 1 year gain of 143.82% providing a buffer to longer term holders, those entering early on the first day of this year will be in a different position entirely, with LUNR down 36.65% YTD.

In yesterday's session, Cathie Wood's ARK invest notably bought 134,000 shares of LUNR, with selling pressure on the day continuing to pull the price lower, ending the day down 3.16%.

There has been some notable shifts in the analyst community in recent weeks, with markets closely watching the company’s path as it navigates a rapidly evolving commercial space sector, buoyed by NASA’s increasing reliance on private partners and its own ambitious expansion plans.

On May 22, Barclays initiated coverage of Intuitive Machines with an Equal Weight rating and a $13 price target. The firm’s stance is notably neutral, reflecting a balanced view of risk and reward at current levels. Barclays highlighted Intuitive’s continued benefit from NASA’s pivot toward commercial collaboration in lunar and deep space missions, underscoring the company’s strategic alignment with federal priorities.

However, Barclays’ position stands in contrast to several other major analysts who have taken a more bullish view in recent weeks. On May 14, Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target from $13 to $16, maintaining an Overweight rating. Cantor’s optimism is rooted in Intuitive’s diversified exposure across Lunar Access, Lunar Communication, Orbital Services, and Space Infrastructure, segments that are expected to see robust growth as the space economy accelerates.

Canaccord followed suit, lifting its price target to $21.50 from $21 and reiterating its Buy rating. The firm cited the company’s first-ever positive free cash flow quarter and strong visibility into backlog expansion, reflecting growing confidence in Intuitive’s operational execution and revenue pipeline.

Intuitive Machines’ recent Q1 2025 results marked a turning point. The company reported $62.5 million in revenue, just shy of analyst expectations, but more importantly, delivered $19.4 million in positive operating cash flow and $13.3 million in free cash flow. This was a milestone for a firm that, less than a year ago, posted a staggering $98 million net loss. The Q1 net loss narrowed significantly to $11.5 million, and the company ended the quarter with $373.3 million in cash, bolstered by a successful warrant redemption.

Looking ahead, Intuitive Machines projects 2025 revenue in the $250–300 million range, with positive run-rate adjusted EBITDA anticipated by year-end, a critical metric as the company aims for consistent profitability. CEO Steve Altemus emphasized a strategic pivot beyond lunar missions, targeting adjacent markets such as National Security Space and broader data services. This diversification is designed to cushion the company from cyclical swings in lunar contract awards and position it as a more comprehensive space infrastructure provider.

After recent shifts, the consensus is that Intuitive Machines is well-positioned to leverage the commercial space boom, but investors must weigh the risks inherent in an industry prone to project delays, regulatory shifts, and technological uncertainty.