JD.com Stock Price (NASDAQ: JD) Returns Green YTD as Earnings Await – What Markets Expect

JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD), China’s largest retailer by revenue, is approaching a pivotal moment as it prepares to announce its Q1 2025 earnings this morning. Analysts are looking for Q1 2025 revenue of $40.3 billion (+11.6% YoY) and EPS of $1.05 (+34.6% YoY).

Sentiment appears to be shifting bullish just in time for the print, with yesterday's impressive 6.47% gain in JD.com's stock price enough to move the company back into green territory on the year. We can expect margin sustainability to be under scrutiny today, as JD’s operating margin improved to 4.6% in Q3 2024, but food delivery investments could pressure near-term profitability.

JD, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo also continue competing on discounts, particularly in electronics. While this drives volume, it pressures gross margins with JD’s falling to 13.8% in Q4 2024 from 14.3% YoY.

JD.com’s full-year 2024 financial results, released on March 6, 2025, underscored robust profitability despite modest revenue growth. Net income attributable to shareholders surged 190.8% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB 9.9 billion ($1.4 billion), driven by margin expansion in core retail segments and cost discipline.

The company’s operating cash flow grew 40.9% to RMB 74.0 billion ($10.2 billion), enabling aggressive capital returns. These measures included a $1.5 billion annual dividend ($0.98 per ADS, 2.89% yield), a $3.6 billion share repurchase in 2024, reducing shares outstanding by 8.1%, alongside a new $5.0 billion buyback program authorized through August 2027.

Operationally, the company has not been standing still. JD’s aggressive push into food delivery, challenging Meituan and Alibaba’s Ele.me, has drawn mixed reactions. The company accused rivals of anti-competitive practices in April 2025, alleging couriers were pressured to reject JD orders. This move aligns with JD’s strategy to leverage its logistics network but risks margin erosion in a low-profit sector.

China’s appliance trade-in rebate policy, offering subsidies for replacing old devices, has buoyed JD’s core electronics segment. Management highlighted this as a tailwind in Q4 2024, with consumer electronics and home appliances driving 65% of retail revenue.

The view on the street remains broadly bullish on the firm's prospects. A consensus price target of $54.50 reflects almost 50% in upside potential from the current price action, although recent shifts in target have been largely to the downside. In April, Goldman Sachs removed JD from it's APAC conviction list; whilst Macquarie ($31 from $35), Citi ($51 from $56), and BofA ($48 from $51) all moved PT's lower.

JD.com’s Q1 2025 report will be a test of its ability to balance growth investments (food delivery, international expansion) with profitability. Key metrics to watch include:

While JD’s valuation remains compelling, investors should weigh operational execution against macroeconomic uncertainties. A beat on EPS and upward revised guidance could be the catalyst bulls are looking for, but muted consumer sentiment or narrowing margins could pose downside risks.