London Stock Exchange Group Q1 Update – What to Expect

Citi analysts expect a steady first-quarter trading update from London Stock Exchange Group (LON: LSEG) when it reports on 1 May, describing the upcoming statement as “relatively uneventful.”

In a recent note, Citi maintained its Buy rating on LSEG but reduced its price target from 13,500p to 13,000p. 

The bank forecasts Q1 2025 income (excluding recoveries and cost of goods sold) of £2.26 billion, which it notes is in line with Visible Alpha consensus.

Drilling into segment performance, Citi said it is in line on Capital Markets, supported by “stronger Equities vs weaker FX.” Post Trade revenues are expected to outperform, with the bank projecting figures 5% ahead of consensus “on strong SwapClear volumes.”

However, weaker areas are also expected. Citi forecasts Data & Analytics to come in 1% below consensus, citing “workflows related” issues, while FTSE Russell is projected to fall short by 2% following “loss of an ETF mandate.” Risk Intelligence is expected to be broadly in line.

Citi does not anticipate any revision to full-year guidance with the Q1 update. It also sees annual subscription value (ASV) growth of around 6.4%, compared to 6.3% at the end of 2024, though notes this is “a volatile point in time metric.”

Despite the near-term caution, Citi remains positive on the stock’s long-term prospects, highlighting a strong investment case. 

“We continue to like the long-term LSEG investment thesis,” the analysts wrote, but added that revenues are now “less cyclically geared compared to peers” and they see “fewer obvious near-term catalysts from here.”