Macy’s Stock (M) Rises as Citi Flags Upside Catalyst Ahead of March Earnings

Macy's stock (NYSE:M) is 1% higher this morning, after Citi placed the department store retailer on its “30-day upside catalyst watch” ahead of fourth-quarter earnings, signalling expectations for a positive surprise when results land on March 5.

The Wall Street firm maintained its Neutral rating and $24 price target on the stock, but told clients that the risk/reward profile into the earnings print has turned favorable. Citi's analysts believe Macy's will report results above consensus estimates, driven by improving sales trends and operational efficiencies that have begun to materialize in recent quarters.

The catalyst watch designation comes as Macy's has demonstrated surprising resilience in a challenging retail environment. In the third quarter of fiscal 2025, the company posted net sales of $4.7 billion, down just 0.6% year-over-year, while delivering a 3.2% increase in comparable sales—the strongest growth in 13 quarters. More impressively, adjusted earnings per share reached $0.09, crushing guidance that had anticipated a loss between $0.15 and $0.20.

That performance prompted management to raise full-year guidance substantially. The company now expects net sales between $21.48 billion and $21.63 billion, up from prior guidance of $21.15 billion to $21.45 billion. Adjusted EPS projections were lifted to a range of $2.00 to $2.20 from $1.70 to $2.05 previously. Comparable owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace sales are forecast to be flat to up 0.5% year-over-year, a marked improvement from the earlier expectation of a decline between 1.5% and 0.5%.

Markets have shown mixed reactions to Macy's earnings beats in recent quarters, suggesting sentiment remains cautious despite operational improvements. After reporting Q4 2025 EPS of $1.80, well above the $1.54 forecast, the stock fell 6.01% in pre-market trading, reflecting lingering concerns about the broader consumer spending environment and the sustainability of the turnaround.

Price Targets

The current stock price of $22.47 sits just below Citi's $24 target, suggesting limited upside if the firm's base case proves accurate. However, the catalyst watch designation implies potential for the shares to exceed that level if fourth-quarter results significantly surpass expectations.