Monday.com’s Stock (MNDY) Makes Fresh Low Ahead of Earnings – Will The Tide Shift?

Monday.com’s stock (NASDAQ:MNDY) has been under significant pressure in recent months, starting 2026 with a 31.67% decline, and hitting a new low of $92.73 during Friday’s session. With earnings due up this morning, the stock has found a semblance of a bounce, coming into the print at $98 after an intraday bounce, yet firmly lower (-70%) on a rolling 12 month basis.

The quarter is expected to show whether the company can sustain revenue growth above 22% while demonstrating credible operating leverage.

Following three consecutive quarters where strong EPS beats failed to prevent sharp selloffs, consensus sits at $0.88 EPS and $312.26M revenue, both above management’s prior guidance midpoint, creating a setup where meeting guidance may not be sufficient to reverse the stock’s 70% decline. Sentiment in software names has been bearish, with AI being seen as having the potential to erode moats across the board.

The market’s reaction function has shifted decisively away from rewarding quarterly beats. In FQ3 2025, Monday.com delivered $1.16 adjusted EPS versus $0.88 consensus and $316.9M revenue versus $312.3M expected, yet the stock fell 19% because Q4 revenue guidance of approximately $329M came in below the Street’s $333.7M expectation.

The pattern repeated in FQ2, when a $1.09 EPS beat and $299M revenue print triggered a 26% decline after management cited temporary web-traffic softness tied to Google search algorithm changes.

What this report will determine is whether Monday.com can articulate a 2026 growth trajectory that justifies a forward P/E of 18.7 in an environment where productivity software peers have repriced sharply lower. The company has raised full-year 2025 revenue guidance four consecutive times, yet each incremental lift has been met with skepticism about the sustainability of 20%-plus growth.

Consensus Estimates

Consensus revenue of $312.26M sits approximately 5% below the midpoint of management’s prior Q4 guide of $329M, a gap that reflects either conservative Street positioning or downward revision following the November guidance. The EPS estimate of $0.88 represents only 3% year-over-year growth, a sharp deceleration from the 36.5% growth posted in FQ3 2025 when adjusted EPS reached $1.16.

Management Guidance & Commentary

“New products now account for more than 10% of total ARR, with monday CRM surpassing $100M in ARR and continued adoption of monday service and the launch of monday campaigns.”

Management’s FQ3 2025 commentary emphasized multi-product platform momentum, with the company highlighting that products launched beyond its core Work OS now represent a material portion of annual recurring revenue. The $100M ARR milestone for monday CRM provided a concrete data point for the upmarket and cross-sell thesis.

“We are seeing temporary declines in web traffic tied to changes in Google search, including AI-generated overviews, which may impact customer acquisition efficiency in the near term.”

The FQ2 2025 disclosure about web-traffic softness introduced a new risk factor that the market had not previously priced. Management framed the issue as temporary and tied to algorithmic changes rather than demand weakness, but the 26% stock decline following that report suggests investors interpreted the commentary as evidence that customer acquisition costs could become less predictable.

Analyst Price Targets & Ratings

Wall Street remains largely bullish, with 79% of analysts rating shares a Buy or Strong Buy. However, recent price target cuts from UBS (to $140 from $200) and Piper Sandler (to $170 from $250) underscore the shift in sentiment, even as the consensus target of $203 implies more than 100% upside from current levels.

Sector & Peer Comparison

Monday.com trades at a forward P/E of 18.7, in line with Intuit (19.2) but its 5.6% profit margin lags all listed peers by a wide margin. The valuation discount relative to trailing P/E reflects the market’s expectation of rapid earnings growth, yet the forward multiple suggests limited confidence in sustaining growth rates sufficient to justify further multiple expansion.

Earnings Track Record

Monday.com has beaten adjusted EPS estimates in 18 of the last 19 reported quarters, with an average surprise of 92.3%. The consistency establishes that beating consensus EPS is not sufficient to drive positive stock reactions—the market has recalibrated to focus on revenue growth sustainability and margin trajectory rather than near-term profitability outperformance.

Post-Earnings Price Movement History

The pattern establishes that guidance relative to expectations is the primary driver of post-earnings price action. The most severe reaction occurred following FQ2 2025, when web-traffic concerns triggered a 26% decline despite a strong EPS beat. Only the FQ1 2025 report generated a positive reaction, driven by exceptional margin expansion.

Monday.com’s collaborative work culture reflects the company’s mission to improve team productivity, though recent earnings reactions show investors prioritizing forward guidance over execution.

Expected Move & Implied Volatility

The options market is pricing an expected move of approximately 12%, consistent with the stock’s recent post-earnings volatility. Implied volatility sits at elevated levels, reflecting both company-specific uncertainty around guidance and broader sector headwinds affecting productivity software names.

Expert Predictions & What to Watch

Key Outlook: Guidance Will Drive the Trade

Key Metrics to Watch

The setup heading into this print is straightforward: the market is paying today for the September narrative and wants proof the slope hasn’t flattened. A clean beat likely requires revenue landing closer to management’s guidance range with strong forward commentary—otherwise it risks reading as “fully priced.” Understanding leverage in this context becomes crucial for traders looking to position ahead of earnings, while investors should consider the fundamental differences between trading and investing when approaching this volatile stock.