Nvidia Heads Into Earnings More Than 50% Off Lows – Further Volatility Expected

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) prepares to release its latest set of earnings today, after the closing bell, with the street sitting up at attention for the print. Options traders are currently pricing in a potential 7% move in either direction following today's earnings report.

Wall Street analysts are projecting significant growth for Nvidia, with consensus estimates indicating a 44% increase in earnings. Earnings per share is expected to come in at $0.75, on revenue of $43.25 billion. The expectations for the next quarter (Jul 2025) are for further growth still, with EPS of $0.99 on revenue of $45.66 billion.

Growth is expected, with a beat and raise almost considered the norm for NVDA. To highlight this, despite beating estimates in Q4 fiscal 2025, the stock dropped 8.5% the day after the announcement.

The previous quarter was impressive, with the company reporting Q4 revenue of $39.3 billion (up 12% quarterly and 78% yearly). Full fiscal 2025 revenue reached $130.5 billion (up 114% from previous year), with Q4 GAAP earnings per diluted share of $0.89 (up 14% quarterly and 82% yearly). This was not enough to pacify markets however.

Now we head into earnings without the same cloud hanging over broader markets as the last period. Nvidia closed at $135.50 in the latest session with a 3.21% increase, and pre-market trading continues this upwards trend with a 0.65% rise. Nvidia is clearly back in bull territory over recent months, with the significant decline (30%+) leading into April now firmly in the rear-view. With Nvidia having gained more than 50% off the lows, less than 2 months ago, any perceived mis-steps however may be harshly treated.

Wall Street’s Expectations and Valuation Context

Expectations are running high. Morgan Stanley, in a note released just yesterday, named Nvidia its “top pick” among semiconductor stocks. Earlier in April, analysts also came out with positive adjustments on NVDA. Both BofA and UBS kept their endorsement “Buy” rating on the shares. BofA has raised their price target on the shares from $150 to $160 whilst UBS lowered from $180 to $175.

Central to NVIDIA’s bullish narrative is its dominant position in the AI hardware market. CEO Jensen Huang has recently touted “amazing” demand for the new Blackwell architecture, which is engineered to accelerate both training and inference in next-generation AI systems. The company has already achieved billions in sales from Blackwell AI supercomputers in its first quarter of production, reinforcing the company's reputation as the critical supplier for the world’s leading AI developers and hyperscale data centers.

Despite the optimism, risks persist. Nvidia's history of sharp post-earnings moves, coupled with sky-high expectations, means that any disappointment; whether in revenue, guidance, or margin performance, could trigger a sell-off. Markets will be braced for volatility in either direction, but the long-term narrative remains one of innovation, leadership, and outsized opportunity in the AI revolution.