Newmont (NEM) Rallying Into Earnings – What To Expect

Newmont’s stock (NYSE:NEM) is trading 24% higher YTD ahead of earnings today, with the company reporting after the closing bell, followed by a conference call at 5:30 p.m. ET.

Consensus sits at adjusted EPS of $1.94 on revenue of $6.05 billion, a high bar that assumes the gold-price environment continues to translate into strong margins and cash conversion despite the flagged headwinds.

Newmont delivered four consecutive quarterly beats through Q3 2025, with adjusted EPS of $1.71 versus $1.44 consensus in the most recent report, yet the stock fell roughly 2% in extended trading on the cash-flow caution.

The market has demonstrated it will penalize execution shortfalls even when headline earnings clear estimates, particularly when working capital, remediation spend, or severance consumes cash that higher gold prices theoretically generate.

With the Newmont stock price up 164% over the past year and trading near its January 29 record high of $134.88, the valuation premium leaves limited room for disappointment on either the reported result or forward commentary. The outcome will determine whether Newmont’s 2025 narrative of portfolio simplification, cost discipline, and capital returns can extend into 2026 under new CEO Natascha Viljoen, who took over from Tom Palmer.

Consensus Estimates

Consensus has moved 13.5% higher over the past 30 days, with four upward revisions and no downward adjustments, indicating growing analyst confidence as the report date approaches. The $1.94 EPS estimate represents a 38.6% year-over-year increase from Q4 2024’s $1.40 result, driven primarily by higher realized gold prices rather than volume expansion.

The estimate range is unusually wide, with EPS projections spanning $1.24 to $1.80, a 45% variance that suggests material uncertainty around either cost performance or production volumes. The Q3 warning that Q4 free cash flow would be adversely impacted by Yanacocha spending and severance payments has not been quantified in company disclosures, creating a gap between headline earnings expectations and the cash conversion that ultimately drives the stock.

Analyst Price Targets & Ratings

Wall Street maintains a bullish stance with 85% of analysts rating shares a Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus target of $135.84 implies 8.9% upside from current levels, though the modest premium reflects uncertainty around whether the company’s cash generation can sustain at current gold prices.

Sector & Peer Comparison

Newmont trades at a 15% premium to Barrick Gold on trailing P/E (19.4x versus 16.8x) and a 9% premium on forward P/E (13.2x versus 12.1x), a valuation gap that reflects the company’s scale advantage and portfolio quality following the Newcrest acquisition. The forward P/E of 13.2x sits below the peer average of approximately 15.2x when excluding the streaming companies Franco-Nevada and Wheaton Precious Metals.

Earnings Track Record

Newmont’s track record reveals a clear inflection point in execution consistency. The company delivered four consecutive beats from Q4 2024 through Q3 2025, with an average surprise of +34.9% during that stretch, a material improvement from the prior period. This shift coincides with the completion of the Newcrest integration and management’s stated focus on portfolio simplification and cost discipline.

Post-Earnings Price Movement History

The pattern suggests guidance and cash-flow commentary drive reactions more than backward-looking EPS beats. Q3 2025’s +1.7% move despite an +18.8% beat came after extended-hours weakness when management flagged Q4 free cash flow pressure, indicating the market discounts earnings strength if forward visibility deteriorates.

Expected Move & Implied Volatility

The options market is pricing an 8.6% post-earnings move, approximately 110 basis points above the historical average of 7.8%, suggesting elevated expectations for volatility regardless of the result’s direction. The implied volatility of 42.3% sits at the 68th percentile of the past year’s range, indicating options traders see above-average uncertainty heading into the report.

Expert Predictions & What to Watch

Key Outlook: Cash Flow Will Drive the Trade

The consensus estimate of $1.94 adjusted EPS sits within reach based on recent execution, particularly if realized gold prices in Q4 approached the $2,600 to $2,700 per ounce range. However, the constraint is not the backward-looking EPS result but the forward-looking cash conversion and cost trajectory.

Key Metrics to Watch

The Q4 free cash flow figure will carry more weight than the adjusted EPS result. Newmont generated record free cash flow in Q2 and Q3 2025, yet the October warning that Q4 would face pressure from Yanacocha water-treatment facility spending and severance payments created uncertainty around whether the company can sustain that cadence.

Management’s 2026 guidance will reset expectations for the year ahead. Investors will focus on production targets, AISC frameworks, and capital expenditure plans to model earnings and free cash flow under various gold-price scenarios. The tone around capital allocation, particularly whether the company plans to accelerate the $3.0 billion buyback or increase the authorization, will signal management’s confidence in sustained cash generation.

For those interested in building a diversified investment portfolio, understanding the difference between stocks and shares can be helpful when analyzing individual companies like Newmont. Additionally, investors should consider whether they want to pursue active leverage in trading or take a more conservative approach to position sizing when investing in mining stocks given their inherent volatility.