Nio’s Stock (NYSE: NIO) Rallying Pre-Market – We Take A Look ‘Under The Hood’

NIO's stock (NYSE: NIO) looks set to start the week in strong form, with pre-market gains of 6.8% welcome news to beleaguered long term holders. The latest move to the upside comes after a period of recovery from a multi-year low of $3.02) seen in April, with a ~30% bounce in a little over 1 month of trading.

Trade tensions had put sentiment firmly on the back foot, but with the weekend's discussions seemingly easing battle lines between the two largest economies, Nio could be set for a counter move as delivery milestones improve.

NIO's operational front paints a picture of solid growth and strategic expansion. A key highlight remains the company's impressive delivery figures. April 2025 saw NIO deliver 23,900 vehicles, marking a significant 53% year-over-year surge. This performance contributed to a total of 65,994 vehicles delivered year-to-date by April 30, 2025, a 44.5% increase compared to the same period in the previous year.

Cumulatively, NIO had delivered 737,558 vehicles by the end of April 2025. This momentum was also evident in March 2025, with 15,039 deliveries, and the first quarter of 2025 concluded with 42,094 vehicle deliveries, up 40.1% year-over-year.

April Deliveries – 23,900 (+53% YoY)
Q1 2025 Deliveries – 42,094 (+40.1% YoY)

Fuelling this expansion is NIO's ambitious multi-brand strategy, which now encompasses the premium NIO brand, the family-focused ONVO brand, and the newly launched Firefly brand, targeting the small, smart, high-end EV segment. The Firefly model commenced deliveries in late April 2025, signaling NIO's intent for broader global market penetration.

Furthermore, the new smart electric executive flagship, the ET9, also began deliveries in late March 2025, showcasing NIO's cutting-edge technology. The company has ambitious plans to launch a total of nine new models across its three brands throughout 2025. Despite this strong overall trajectory, weekly insurance registration figures for the period ending May 4, 2025, showed a temporary dip, attributed to the typical slowdown at the beginning of a month and the May 1-5 Labor Day holiday in China.

What Is The Outlook for NIO?

The street's view on NIO is cautiously optimistic for the long term, though analyst sentiment is generally a “Hold.” The consensus price target of $5.13 continues to reflect significant upside from the current price action, with some even more bullish still. Citigroup, for instance, placed NIO on a 30-day positive “catalyst watch” in late April 2025, setting a price target of $8.10.

Financially, NIO presents a mixed bag. The company reported a substantial 18.2% year-over-year increase in total revenues for 2024, reaching RMB65.73 billion, with vehicle sales contributing RMB58.23 billion. Gross profit more than doubled in 2024 to RMB6.49 billion. The fourth quarter of 2024 was particularly strong operationally, with a record 72,689 vehicles delivered, achieving a vehicle margin of 13.1%.

The overall vehicle margin for 2024 improved to 12.3% from 9.5% in the prior year. However, the path to profitability remains a significant hurdle. Net losses widened in Q4 2024 to RMB7.11 billion. NIO has set a target to achieve breakeven by the fourth quarter of 2025, with markets keenly awaiting the company's first-quarter 2025 earnings report, scheduled for June 5.

Analysts project continued losses in the near term, though an improvement is expected from an estimated EPS of -$7.45 in 2024 to -$4.56 in 2025. NIO continues to invest heavily in research and development, allocating a quarter of its revenue to R&D, and is aggressively expanding its innovative battery swap infrastructure, aiming for over 4,000 stations by the end of 2025.

Key growth drivers include rising EV adoption in China, international expansion efforts, the success of new model launches, and its unique battery-as-a-service (BaaS) offering. Nevertheless, the competitive intensity in the Chinese EV market, with formidable rivals such as BYD, Tesla, Xiaomi, and Xpeng, alongside potential tariff-driven market volatility, present ongoing challenges.