Puma (ETR: PUM) is expected to report a year-on-year decline in first-quarter earnings when it publishes results on 30 April, as the German sportswear group continues to navigate a deliberate distribution reset, according to a preview note from mwb Research.
Analyst Alexander Zienkowicz models Q1 revenues of approximately €1.83 billion, broadly in line with the analyst consensus of €1.82 billion but materially below the prior-year figure of €2.07 billion. Management has guided for a currency-adjusted revenue decline in the low- to mid-single-digit range, consistent with its full-year outlook.
The firm explained that North America remains the primary regional drag, where an ongoing wholesale channel clean-up continues to suppress top-line growth.
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Greater China is said to add further uncertainty, with local wholesale partners pulling back on new commitments amid anticipation of potential strategic changes following Anta’s announced acquisition of a 29% stake in Puma from Artémis/Pinault, a deal that has not yet been completed.
On margins, mwb Research estimates a gross margin of approximately 46.5%, down from 47.0% in the prior-year period, as inventory unwinding continues to weigh on profitability.
EBIT is modelled at between €20 million and €35 million, well below the €70 million recorded in Q1 2025, and consistent with the company’s full-year guidance of an EBIT loss of between €50 million and €150 million.
With 2026 broadly accepted as a transition year, the analyst expects investor attention to focus on signs of structural improvement from the second half onwards and early strategic guidance for 2027. The Iran conflict was flagged as an incremental macro risk.
mwb Research maintains its Hold rating and price target of €23.00, implying modest downside from the current share price of €25.81.
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