QFIN Earnings on Deck: Stock Under Pressure, Down 42% YTD

Qfin Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: QFIN), formerly known as Qifu Technology, is set to release its third-quarter 2025 earnings report today, against the backdrop of market uncertainty. The stock currently trades at $22.34, down 12.7% on the past month, reflecting a continuation of the downward trend that has plagued the company throughout the year.

Year-to-date, QFIN is down approximately 42%, a substantial decline that has left investors questioning the company’s future prospects.

Analysts estimate earnings per share (EPS) of $1.68 for the current quarter, a 3.45% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. However, projections for the fiscal year ending December 2025 paint a more optimistic picture, with a projected EPS of $6.87, representing a 21.38% increase year-over-year. Whether QFIN can meet, or exceed, these expectations remains to be seen, and the market’s reaction will likely be swift and decisive.

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The current market sentiment surrounding QFIN is undeniably bearish. The stock’s performance lags significantly behind its 52-week high of $48.94, and it now sits precariously close to its 52-week low of $20.45. Technically, QFIN’s position below both its 50-day ($26.74) and 200-day ($36.74) simple moving averages (SMAs) confirms the bearish trend. These moving averages are often used as indicators of overall market direction, and the fact that QFIN is trading well below both suggests that the stock is facing significant headwinds. 

Looking to previous reports for clues, the second quarter of 2025, saw strong financial results, including a 25.4% year-over-year increase in total net revenue to RMB5,215.9 million (US$728.1 million). The company also increased its semi-annual dividend to $0.76 per share, signaling confidence in its financial health. However, these positive developments seem to have been overshadowed by broader market concerns and the stock’s overall downward trajectory.

The next few trading sessions will be pivotal for QFIN, as analysts and investors digest the earnings figures and recalibrate their outlook on the company’s future. The stock sits at a crossroads, and the direction it takes will depend heavily on the narrative that emerges from today’s earnings release.