Qualcomm Earnings On Deck, Stock Holding Steady – What To Expect

Qualcomm reports fiscal Q1 2026 results after market close today, with the stock holding firm on the day, up 2.64% at $151.07 leading in. The quarter provides the read on whether handset revenue can sustain growth amid Apple’s accelerating transition to in-house modems and broader smartphone market headwinds.

Consensus sits at $3.40 EPS and $12.18B revenue, both within management’s prior guidance range of $3.30 to $3.50 and $11.8B to $12.6B, creating a setup where meeting expectations may not suffice if forward commentary introduces new customer-share or demand concerns.

The stock has declined 12% year-to-date, reflecting investor skepticism about Qualcomm’s ability to offset the structural loss of Apple modem business through automotive and IoT diversification. Analysts project Qualcomm’s share of Apple’s modem business will fall to just 20% in calendar 2026, a headwind large enough to require material upside in other segments to sustain the growth narrative.

The company’s 85% beat rate over the past 20 quarters establishes operational credibility, yet recent post-earnings reactions have consistently discounted beats when guidance or customer-share commentary disappointed.

The quarter will determine whether Qualcomm can deliver a clean beat without reintroducing variables that have overwhelmed prior results: tariff uncertainty in spring 2025, licensing visibility concerns in February 2025, and Samsung share questions in November 2025.

With consensus EPS estimates revised 2.5% lower over the past 30 days and the stock trading at a 25% discount to analyst targets, the market has priced in caution but remains vulnerable to downside if management narrows guidance or signals further customer concentration risk.

Consensus Estimates

Consensus EPS of $3.40 sits at the midpoint of management’s $3.30 to $3.50 guidance range, while the $12.18B revenue estimate lands slightly below the $12.2B midpoint. This positioning creates asymmetric risk: a beat requires execution above the guided range, while merely meeting guidance could disappoint a Street that has grown accustomed to upside. The 47-cent estimate range on EPS reflects meaningful uncertainty about handset mix and licensing revenue, both of which have driven volatility in prior quarters.

The 2.5% downward revision to consensus EPS over the past 30 days signals analysts have recalibrated expectations lower despite Qualcomm’s prior guidance remaining unchanged. Revenue growth of 4.3% year-over-year compares unfavorably to the 17.6% growth recorded in the prior year’s comparable quarter, underscoring the deceleration narrative that has weighed on the stock. Handset revenue growth of just 2.9% will face scrutiny given Apple’s declining contribution and questions about Samsung share sustainability.

Automotive revenue growth of 13.9% represents the clearest diversification proof point, yet the $1.09B estimate remains small relative to the $7.79B handset base. The market will assess whether automotive and IoT growth can accelerate enough to offset structural headwinds in the core business, or whether these segments remain too small to move the consolidated model materially over the next 12 to 18 months.

Management Guidance and Commentary

“The Snapdragon Digital Chassis provides the foundation for software-defined architectures, enabling next-generation infotainment and advanced driver assistance systems that emphasize safety, performance, and scalability.”

Management’s fiscal Q1 2026 guidance, issued with the November 5, 2025 Q4 results, called for revenue of $11.8B to $12.6B and non-GAAP EPS of $3.30 to $3.50. The $12.2B revenue midpoint exceeded then-consensus by approximately $410M, yet the stock declined in extended trading as investor focus shifted to Samsung share concerns rather than the beat-and-raise setup. This pattern has repeated across recent quarters: operational beats fail to earn reratings when forward commentary introduces new uncertainty variables.

The guidance range width of $800M on revenue and $0.20 on EPS is wider than typical for Qualcomm, reflecting management’s acknowledgment of demand visibility challenges in both handsets and licensing. The company has consistently framed guidance around “tariffs as they stand today” since spring 2025, a qualifier that has allowed the Street to discount results when macro conditions shift. Any removal or modification of this language in the upcoming report will signal whether management sees clearer demand visibility or remains anchored to defensive positioning.

Qualcomm’s automotive commentary has emphasized design win momentum with Volkswagen Group and Hyundai Mobis, yet management has not provided specific revenue contribution timelines for these partnerships. The gap between announced partnerships and quantified revenue impact creates a credibility hurdle: investors want proof that automotive can scale to a size that offsets handset headwinds, not just incremental design win announcements. The upcoming call will test whether management can bridge this gap with concrete revenue guidance or customer-specific contribution disclosures.

Analyst Price Targets & Ratings

Wall Street maintains a constructive view with 77% of analysts rating shares a Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus target of $187.69 implies 25% upside from current levels, though this target has remained relatively stable despite the stock’s year-to-date decline. The absence of any Sell ratings suggests analysts view current levels as attractive entry points, yet the 23% Hold weighting reflects uncertainty about near-term catalysts given the Apple transition headwinds.

Sector & Peer Comparison

Qualcomm trades at a forward P/E of 12.6, a significant discount to NVIDIA’s 24.9 and Taiwan Semiconductor’s 24.3, reflecting the market’s view that Qualcomm faces structural headwinds rather than secular AI-driven growth. The 12.5% profit margin sits between AMD’s 10.3% and the foundry leaders’ 40%+ margins, consistent with Qualcomm’s fabless model but highlighting the company’s inability to command premium pricing power despite technology leadership in 5G and mobile processors.

The valuation discount to NVIDIA and TSMC is justified by growth trajectory divergence: those companies benefit from AI infrastructure buildout and HBM demand, while Qualcomm navigates smartphone market maturity and customer concentration risk. However, the discount to AMD appears excessive given Qualcomm’s superior profitability and stronger balance sheet positioning. If automotive and IoT revenue can demonstrate sustainable double-digit growth, the forward multiple could re-rate toward the 18 to 20 range that would imply material upside from current levels.

Intel’s negative profit margin and 90.1 forward P/E underscore the execution risk in semiconductor turnarounds, providing context for why the market has been unwilling to give Qualcomm credit for diversification efforts until revenue contribution becomes material. The peer set suggests Qualcomm needs to prove it can sustain mid-single-digit revenue growth with stable margins before the valuation gap narrows, a bar that requires automotive scaling faster than current estimates project.

Earnings Track Record

Qualcomm has beaten EPS estimates in 17 of the past 20 quarters, establishing an 85% beat rate with an average surprise of 1.2%. The December 2024 quarter delivered the largest upside at 16.0%, yet the stock fell 4.8% in extended trading as investors focused on licensing visibility concerns rather than the operational beat. This pattern recurred in fiscal Q4 2025, when a 4.2% EPS beat and above-consensus guidance still triggered a selloff on Samsung share questions.

The beat magnitude has compressed over the past three quarters, from 14.0% in December 2024 to 4.5%, 2.2%, and 1.1% in subsequent reports. This narrowing reflects consensus catching up to Qualcomm’s execution rather than deteriorating fundamentals, yet it removes the “easy beat” buffer that previously allowed the company to exceed expectations without material upside. The upcoming quarter requires either a return to mid-single-digit beat percentages or guidance that offsets the smaller surprise.

The track record confirms that beats alone do not determine stock reaction; guidance tone and customer-share commentary have consistently mattered more. Investors should focus less on whether Qualcomm beats the $3.40 EPS estimate and more on whether management can articulate a credible path to sustaining growth as Apple modem revenue declines. A beat without forward visibility will likely replicate prior post-earnings selloffs.

Post-Earnings Price Movement History

The average next-day move following earnings over the past five quarters is -0.3%, with beats averaging -0.3% and misses -0.4%. This near-zero average masks significant volatility: the December 2024 quarter saw a 14.0% EPS beat followed by a -0.6% decline, while September 2024’s 4.7% beat triggered a -2.6% selloff. The pattern confirms that reported results have become decoupled from immediate price reaction, with guidance and commentary driving outcomes.

The most recent quarter (September 2025) marked the first time in three reports that a beat translated to a positive next-day move, gaining 0.7% on a 4.5% EPS surprise. This shift suggests the market may have become less reflexively negative on Qualcomm, yet the modest 0.7% gain despite a clean beat and in-line guidance indicates investor skepticism remains elevated. The stock requires either a material beat or meaningfully constructive forward commentary to generate sustained upside.

Historical movement data implies the options market’s expected move of approximately 5% to 6% overstates likely next-day volatility based on recent patterns. Investors positioning for large moves in either direction may be disappointed unless management introduces a significant positive catalyst (accelerated automotive revenue timeline, new customer wins) or negative surprise (further Apple share loss, margin pressure). The base case remains a modest reaction in either direction regardless of whether Qualcomm beats or misses by a few cents.

Expected Move & Implied Volatility

The options market prices a 5.5% expected move in either direction, implying a trading range of $141.41 to $157.87 for the day following earnings. This expected move exceeds the -0.3% average actual move over the past five quarters by a factor of 18, creating a meaningful gap between options pricing and historical reality. The 68th percentile IV ranking suggests elevated uncertainty relative to Qualcomm’s typical earnings volatility, yet recent patterns argue this premium is unwarranted absent a major catalyst.

Implied volatility of 42% versus 38% realized volatility over the past 30 days indicates option buyers are paying a 4-point premium for event risk. This premium has proven expensive in recent quarters, as actual next-day moves have consistently undershot options-implied ranges. Investors selling volatility into the print face risk if management introduces unexpected guidance changes or customer-share updates, yet the historical data supports a thesis that IV will compress post-earnings regardless of the result.

The elevated IV percentile may reflect broader market uncertainty about smartphone demand and semiconductor sector volatility rather than Qualcomm-specific factors. If the report delivers in-line results with no major guidance surprises, IV should collapse toward the 30% to 35% range that has characterized non-earnings periods over the past year. Conversely, any commentary that reopens the Apple transition timeline or Samsung share debate could sustain elevated volatility into subsequent quarters.

Expert Predictions & What to Watch

Key Outlook: Guidance Will Drive the Trade

The neutral stance reflects the tension between Qualcomm’s operational execution credibility and structural headwinds that have prevented the stock from sustaining rallies. The company has beaten estimates in 17 of 20 quarters, yet shares trade 11% below year-to-date highs because investors discount beats when forward visibility deteriorates. The upcoming report tests whether management can finally deliver a beat paired with constructive guidance that addresses Apple transition concerns and articulates a credible automotive scaling timeline.

Key Metrics to Watch

QCT handset revenue will determine whether Qualcomm can sustain growth in its largest segment despite losing Apple share. The $7.79B consensus implies 2.9% year-over-year growth, a deceleration from prior quarters that reflects Apple headwinds. Performance above $7.85B would indicate Samsung and Chinese OEM strength is offsetting Apple declines better than expected, while a miss below $7.70B would raise questions about whether Samsung is also reducing Qualcomm content or Chinese demand is weaker than modeled.

Automotive revenue growth has become the primary diversification proof point investors watch. The $1.09B consensus represents 13.9% year-over-year growth, solid but not sufficient to offset handset headwinds at current scale. Growth above 15% would support the thesis that automotive can become a meaningful revenue contributor by fiscal 2027, while deceleration below 10% would confirm the segment remains too small to move the consolidated model materially over the next 12 to 18 months.

Q2 guidance will matter more than Q1 results for stock direction. Cantor Fitzgerald expects Q2 guidance to lag Street estimates, which would replicate the pattern from prior quarters where beats were followed by disappointing forward outlooks. Guidance above $11.2B would break this pattern and potentially trigger a sustained rally, while guidance below $11.0B would confirm the bear case that Qualcomm faces extended headwinds as Apple transitions accelerate.