Rivian’s Stock (RIVN) Outperforming Markets Leading into Earnings – What To Expect

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) is set to release its first-quarter 2025 earnings report after market close, with the street looking for a loss per share of -$0.80. This would mark a 32.77% improvement year-over-year, alongside revenue of $981.52 million to $1.02 billion. .

While revenue is projected to decline by 15.12% compared to Q1 2024, the narrowing losses reflect progress in cost-cutting initiatives. Investors will scrutinise gross margins, which stood at 1.8% in Q4 2024, to assess whether Rivian can sustain its first-ever quarterly gross profit achieved earlier this year. Management’s commentary on tariff impacts and demand trends will be pivotal, particularly after wildfires in Los Angeles disrupted deliveries in California, a critical EV market.

Rivian’s stock has surged 38% over the past six months, buoyed by cost-cutting wins and strategic pivots. However, shares remain more than 25% below their 12-month high of $18.86 hit in July '24, reflecting skepticism about near-term profitability. The upcoming earnings call will test investor patience, particularly if management revises guidance amid tariff uncertainties or demand fluctuations.

First-quarter deliveries fell 36% year-over-year to 8,640 vehicles, though this exceeded revised analyst estimates of 8,200 units. The decline was attributed to reduced commercial van sales and softer consumer demand, exacerbated by macroeconomic headwinds and competition from hybrid vehicles.

Despite this, Rivian reaffirmed its 2025 delivery guidance of 46,000–51,000 vehicles, signaling confidence in production scalability ahead of the R2 launch. The R2’s $45,000 price point, nearly 40% cheaper than the R1 lineup, could catalyse mass-market adoption, but its 2026 release timeline leaves a near-term growth gap.

Rivian’s liquidity remains a double-edged sword. The company holds a quick ratio of 3.70 and a current ratio of 5.09, indicating strong short-term solvency. However, its debt-to-equity ratio of 0.93 and net loss of $4.75 billion in 2024 highlight ongoing financial strain.

The recent $6.6 billion Department of Energy loan for Georgia plant construction provides breathing room, but profitability hinges on achieving scale with the R2 and R3 models. Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald maintain a Neutral rating with a $15 price target, citing “volatile trading patterns” and reliance on regulatory credits.

Investments and Partnerships

Rivian’s $120 million investment in a supplier park in Normal, Illinois, underscores its commitment to vertical integration. The facility, slated to open in 2026, aims to co-locate parts manufacturers near its assembly plant, reducing logistical costs and streamlining production for the R2 SUV.

This move aligns with Rivian’s decision to pause its Georgia factory plans and shift R2 production to Illinois, saving $2.25 billion in capital expenditure. However, reliance on regulatory credits ($299 million in Q4 2024) and potential tariff hikes under the Trump administration pose risks to supply chain stability, particularly for batteries sourced from Asia.

Rivian’s collaboration with Volkswagen on EV software and autonomous driving technology signals a long-term bet on innovation. Additionally, the appointment of AI expert Aidan Gomez to the board underscores a focus on data-driven manufacturing and supply chain optimisation. These moves, coupled with the “Real Rivian Adventures” marketing campaign, aim to bolster brand awareness ahead of the R2 launch.

What Next?

Rivian’s Q1 2025 earnings report will serve as a litmus test for its ability to navigate macroeconomic turbulence and execution risks. While strategic investments in localization and partnerships position the company for long-term growth, near-term challenges warrant caution. Some of the key metrics to pay attention to in the report include gross profit sustainability, R2 pre-order momentum, and management’s outlook on tariff impacts.