(RKLB) Rocket Lab Earnings Preview: Stock Consolidates, Awaiting Direction

As Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ: RKLB) prepares to release its second-quarter earnings report today, markets are holding their breath. The company, currently trading in the pre-market at $44.39 per share, finds itself at a critical juncture, balancing ambitious growth initiatives with the persistent challenge of profitability.

Analysts forecast Rocket Lab to report earnings per share (EPS) of –$0.08, a modest deepening of its loss compared to –$0.05 Y/Y. Revenues are projected at approximately $135.4 million, reflecting a solid 27% year‑over‑year increase from $106.3 million.

Rocket Lab's journey over the past year has been nothing short of a rollercoaster, with the stock price fluctuating wildly between a low of $4.20 and a high of $53.44.

As the company seeks to solidify its position as a leading launch provider and space systems manufacturer, its ability to consistently deliver on its promises will be paramount.

The first quarter of 2025 painted a complex picture for Rocket Lab. Revenue surged to $122.6 million, a commendable 32% increase year-over-year, fueled by strong performances in both launch services ($35.6 million) and space systems ($87 million).

However, this revenue growth was overshadowed by a widening loss of $0.12 per share, exceeding the anticipated $0.10 loss. The increased loss was attributed to escalating research and development expenses, particularly related to the development of the Neutron rocket.

On a brighter note, the adjusted EBITDA loss of $30 million was better than the projected range of $33 million to $35 million, suggesting some operational efficiencies despite heavy investments.

Rocket Lab has been aggressively pursuing strategic initiatives to expand its capabilities and market reach. The acquisition of Geost, a missile sensor system provider, is a significant move that positions Rocket Lab as a key player in the national security space sector. This acquisition was met with enthusiasm by the markets, evidenced by a 2.7% premarket trading gain following the announcement.

Furthermore, the Neutron rocket program continues to be a focal point for the company. The program received a major boost with its selection for the Department of Defense’s $5.6 billion National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 1 initiative. This prestigious selection places Rocket Lab among an elite group of only five launch providers chosen for this critical program, and the inaugural Neutron launch remains on track for the second half of 2025.

Analysts generally maintain a positive outlook on Rocket Lab, buoyed by the company's strategic initiatives and growth prospects. Stifel analyst Erik Rasmussen reiterated a “Buy” rating and raised the price target from $34 to $55, citing the company's successful missions and partnerships.

Bank of America and Citigroup have similarly increased their price targets to $50, expressing confidence in Rocket Lab's future performance. The average analyst price target currently sits around $48.33.

However, the consensus forecast also anticipates a quarterly loss of $0.10 per share, representing an 11.1% decline from the same quarter last year. Revenue is expected to be $120.65 million, up 30.1% year-over-year. This suggests that while Rocket Lab is expected to continue its revenue growth trajectory, profitability remains a challenge.

For the upcoming Q2 earnings report, Rocket Lab has provided revenue guidance between $130 million and $140 million, aiming to surpass the previous quarter's record. Analysts anticipate a loss of $0.11 per share, compared to a loss of $0.08 in the same quarter last year.