Summit Therapeutics Stock (SMMT) – New Bullish Price Target

The race to conquer non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is heating up, and Wall Street is placing its bets. Summit Therapeutics (NASDAQ: SMMT) has emerged as a compelling contender, drawing significant attention with its lead drug candidate, ivonescimab.

This innovative bispecific antibody, targeting both PD-1 and VEGF pathways, has demonstrated promising clinical trial results, positioning it as a potential game-changer in the front-line treatment of NSCLC.

The latest vote of confidence comes from UBS, which initiated coverage of Summit Therapeutics with a “Buy” rating and a $30 price target, further fueling the ongoing debate about the company's valuation and future prospects. Summit Therapeutics' stock price has gained 161% over the past 12 months, with the current price of $21.28 indicating a perceived upside of more than 45% from here.

UBS's bullish stance is rooted in the belief that ivonescimab has the potential to become the new standard of care in front-line NSCLC. The firm estimates a peak sales opportunity exceeding $7 billion, potentially reaching $11 billion unadjusted. This projection hinges on ivonescimab's ability to not only demonstrate superior efficacy compared to existing treatments like Merck's Keytruda, but also to successfully navigate the complex regulatory landscape and achieve widespread adoption by oncologists.

The most recent closing stock price of $21.28, however, appears to be pricing in only about $5 billion in peak sales, according to UBS, suggesting substantial upside potential if the drug delivers as expected. This differential between perceived value and potential value is a key driver of the “Buy” rating.

The UBS endorsement is not the only new coverage from the street in recent months.

Clear Street began coverage with a $33 price target in late may, with a Buy rating. Jefferies initiated coverage in December 2024 with a “Buy” rating and a $31 price target, citing positive results from the Phase III HARMONi-2 study, where ivonescimab outperformed Keytruda in certain NSCLC patients.

Jefferies projected near $10 billion in peak sales for the NSCLC indication alone, anticipating a first potential FDA approval in 2026.

Similarly, Evercore ISI initiated coverage in March 2025 with an “Outperform” rating and a $30 price target, further bolstering investor confidence in ivonescimab's potential. Citigroup even upgraded the stock to “Buy” with a $35 price target, based on optimism surrounding the HARMONi-2 trial.

However, it's not all sunshine and rainbows for Summit. The stock has experienced volatility, reflecting the market's sensitivity to clinical trial outcomes and analyst opinions.

A recent “Underperform” rating from Leerink Partners upon their own initiation earlier in June, with a price target of $12, highlighted concerns about ivonescimab's ability to capture sufficient market share to justify the company's valuation. This divergence in analyst opinions underscores the inherent risks associated with investing in biotechnology companies, where clinical trial results and regulatory approvals can significantly impact stock prices.

The key catalysts for Summit Therapeutics lie in the successful execution of its clinical development program and the attainment of regulatory milestones for ivonescimab. With substantial cash reserves of $410 million, the company appears well-positioned to fund its ongoing clinical trials and prepare for potential commercialization.