Super Micro Stock (SMCI) Falling Into Earnings – What To Expect

Super Micro Computer stock (NASDAQ:SMCI) is currently trading at $29.31 ahead of earnings, down 5.35% YTD, and 50% lower since early October, just four months ago.

The street is expecting to see a narrowing of EPS, with the $0.49 consensus ~20% lower than the $0.60 delivered this time last year. Revenue however is expected to have shown noticeable growth, with the $10.34B consensus and 82% Y/Y growth rate.

Recent developments have painted a mixed picture for SMCI. The company has secured significant partnerships and unveiled innovative AI solutions, yet financial performance has shown signs of strain.

In early January, SMCI announced an exclusive deal with Digi Power X to supply servers for its ARMS 200 modular data center platform. This platform supports up to 256 Nvidia B200 or B300 GPUs per pod, providing one megawatt of compute capacity per pod. The rollout began in Q4 2025, with full deployment expected in early 2026.

Adding to its AI server capabilities, SMCI partnered with Fujitsu in October 2025 to develop liquid-cooled servers designed to improve energy efficiency in high-performance computing and generative AI applications. This collaboration underscores SMCI's commitment to sustainable data center solutions. Further solidifying its position, SMCI introduced an “AI Factory” platform in late January 2026 in collaboration with Nvidia. This system integrates SMCI servers with Nvidia's AI software tools and Spectrum-X network switch technology, enabling companies to train and run AI models on a single system. The platform accommodates up to 256 GPUs and is currently available for orders.

The options market suggests an anticipated post-earnings share price movement of approximately 4%, or about $1.44. Historically, the median move over the past eight quarters has been 8.9%, indicating potential for greater volatility depending on the earnings results and forward guidance.

SMCI's stock performance is currently below both its 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The 50-day SMA stands at $31.63, while the 200-day SMA is at $41.79. This positioning below both averages typically suggests bearish momentum, potentially requiring a strong earnings report to shift investor sentiment.

The company's ability to capitalize on its partnerships with Digi Power X, Fujitsu, and Nvidia will be critical. Any updates on these collaborations and their financial impact will be closely scrutinized. Furthermore, investors will want to understand how SMCI plans to address concerns about profitability and margin compression.

With SMCI trading near its intraday low and facing bearish technical indicators, the upcoming earnings report represents a pivotal moment. A strong report could reverse the stock's downward trend, but it will take something of note from the firm for a meaningful sentiment shift.