Tesco Interim Results in Focus as Investors Eye Profit Guidance and Market Share Gains

Tesco (LON: TSCO) will report its interim results on Thursday, October 2, with investors closely watching whether the UK’s largest supermarket chain can deliver on its profit targets amid fierce competition in the grocery sector.

For the 2025/26 financial year, the retailer has guided for group adjusted operating profit between £2.7 billion and £3.0 billion, compared with £3.13 billion a year earlier, alongside free cash flow in the range of £1.4 billion to £1.8 billion.

Consensus forecasts compiled by the company suggest adjusted operating profit of £2.95 billion this year, rising to £3.15 billion in 2026/27.

JPMorgan, which raised its price target on Tesco to 450p in September and placed the stock on its “Positive Catalyst Watch,” has forecast first-half estimates 17% above previous assumptions.

The bank’s analysts expect Tesco’s performance to be “comfortably above guidance” through 2027, supported by resilient demand and disciplined cost control.

The results will also provide an update on Tesco’s £1.45 billion share buyback, launched in April. By June, £448 million worth of shares had been repurchased, with the remainder due to be completed by April 2026.

Shares in Tesco have gained ground this year, up 19.9% year-to-date, as investors anticipate stable earnings momentum and cash returns despite pressure on household budgets.

Analysts expect the update to highlight further market share gains in the UK., where Tesco has continued to see improvements in customer satisfaction and availability.

Chief executive Ken Murphy said in June that Tesco’s “powerful value proposition, strong availability and focus on product quality and innovation” have underpinned performance, even as the market remains “intensely competitive.”