The Risk-Reward For BT Group Shares Is Now Skewed to the Upside

BT Group (LON: BT.A) shares are increasingly seen as favouring an upside trajectory, with JPMorgan adding the telecommunications giant to its Analyst Focus List. 

The move, announced on Wednesday, sees BT replace Cellnex Telecom and signals a growing confidence from the investment bank in the company’s future performance.

According to JPMorgan, BT’s 2026 guidance is deemed “sensibly prudent,” with analysts anticipating that the company’s underlying trends should improve through the year. 

Crucially, JPMorgan’s research note to investors highlights that the risks associated with BT shares are now “skewed to upside,” suggesting a more favourable outlook for potential gains compared to downside exposure.

The positive assessment from JPMorgan comes despite some mixed signals from other major banks. 

In early June, Goldman Sachs removed BT Group from its European Conviction List as part of its monthly update. 

However, the sentiment from JPMorgan aligns more closely with Morgan Stanley, which in late May raised its price target for BT Group to 240p from 225p per share, with the firm naming it a “Top Pick” alongside DT and Swisscom. 

Morgan Stanley’s analysis suggested that higher near-term capital expenditure would translate into faster free cash flow growth as the fibre project nears completion and capex significantly tails off.

BT shares have rallied strongly recently. For the year-to-date, it has risen almost 28%, while in the last 12 months it has climbed over 45%, with a 1.6% increase so far today adding to the gains.