The Trade Desk Earnings on Deck – What To Expect

The Trade Desk reports Q4 2025 results on February 26 after market close. The quarter provides the first test of whether management’s “at least $840M” revenue guide proves conservative or sets up a miss, with consensus at $841.9M leaving minimal margin for error. The stock has collapsed 82% from its 2024 peak to $24.61, creating a binary setup where forward commentary on CTV demand, Kokai platform adoption, and 2026 growth trajectory will determine whether the valuation reset represents capitulation or warranted repricing.

Consensus adjusted EPS of $0.59 sits above the year-ago $0.41 but reflects deceleration from Q3’s 17.7% revenue growth to an expected 13.6% in Q4. The estimate has not moved in 30 days despite the stock’s continued decline, suggesting the Street is anchored to management’s guide rather than extrapolating deterioration. That stability matters because the last time TTD missed revenue expectations (Q4 2024, $741M vs $758.9M consensus), the stock sold off sharply and required two quarters to rebuild credibility. The current setup inverts that risk: consensus converged upward toward the $840M guide, meaning any shortfall would likely trigger disproportionate selling given the stock’s technical damage and institutional exodus.

The valuation context amplifies the stakes. At 27.5x trailing earnings and a forward PEG of 0.48x, the stock trades at a steep discount to its historical multiple, yet analyst price targets averaging $52.03 imply the market has overshot to the downside. Whether that discount reflects temporary sentiment or structural headwinds depends on what management says about large-brand advertising volatility (the dynamic that weighed on Q2), political ad comps rolling off, and whether Kokai is driving measurable margin expansion. The options market prices a 7-9% move, below the stock’s recent realized volatility, suggesting either complacency or consensus that the result lands in-line with muted guidance.

Consensus Estimates

Consensus revenue of $841.9M sits just $1.9M above management’s “at least $840M” guide, a 0.2% cushion that eliminates room for execution slippage. That narrow gap matters because TTD’s last revenue miss (Q4 2024) came when consensus sat 2.4% above the actual print, and the stock required two quarters to recover credibility. The estimate range of $716M to $732M appears stale or erroneous given the guide, suggesting most analysts cluster tightly around $840-845M with limited conviction for upside.

Adjusted EPS consensus of $0.59 implies 43.9% year-over-year growth, driven more by margin expansion than revenue acceleration. The wide estimate range ($0.39 to $0.51) reflects uncertainty about operating leverage from the Kokai platform and whether Q4 benefited from cost discipline or one-time favorability. Zero estimate revisions in the past 30 days despite the stock’s 27.8% monthly decline signals either confidence in the guide or reluctance to front-run management commentary.

The setup creates asymmetric risk to forward guidance rather than the Q4 print itself. A modest revenue beat to $845-850M paired with cautious Q1 2026 commentary would likely disappoint, while an in-line $840M result with confident full-year 2026 guidance above Street expectations could trigger a relief rally. The market is pricing the quarter as a binary event where narrative matters more than the headline numbers.

Management Guidance and Commentary

“We expect revenue of at least $840 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, which at the midpoint represents 14% growth year-over-year.”

Management’s Q4 guide, issued November 6, 2025, set a floor rather than a range, a framing choice that typically signals either conservatism or limited visibility. The “at least $840M” language created a 1.4% gap below the then-prevailing consensus of $851M, forcing the Street to migrate downward over the following weeks. By February 19, consensus had converged to $841.9M, just above the guide, indicating analysts took management’s framing as credible rather than sandbagged.

“We saw elevated volatility among large brands starting in early April, though conditions stabilized later in the quarter.”

This Q2 2025 commentary (August 7 call) introduced the macro sensitivity narrative that has weighed on the stock through year-end. Management tied the volatility to tariff-related uncertainty and budget reassessments among major advertisers, a dynamic that matters for Q4 because political ad spending (a tailwind in prior years) rolled off and created tougher year-over-year comps. The question for the upcoming call is whether “stabilization” held through Q4 or if December softness emerged

The company filed an 8-K on January 26, 2026, reiterating that it expected Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA “consistent with previously reported guidance.” That unusual pre-earnings reassurance suggests management wanted to reduce uncertainty after the stock’s collapse, but it also locked the company into the $840M floor with no upside signaling. The result is a setup where beating $840M by $5-10M would be viewed as “in-line” rather than a positive surprise, shifting the burden entirely to forward guidance.

Analyst Price Targets & Ratings

Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish despite the stock’s 82% decline, with 81% of analysts rating shares a Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus target of $52.03 implies 111% upside from current levels—an extraordinary disconnect that suggests either analysts see the selloff as overdone or the market is pricing in fundamental deterioration that hasn’t been reflected in estimates. The wide gap between current price and targets creates significant revision risk if Q4 results or guidance disappoint.

Sector & Peer Comparison

The Trade Desk trades at a 62.6% discount to AppLovin on forward P/E (11.8x vs 31.5x) despite comparable revenue growth rates (TTD 13.6% expected Q4 growth vs APP’s recent 20.8%). That gap reflects AppLovin’s superior profitability (28.3% net margin vs TTD’s 15.7%) and investor preference for gaming-adjacent ad tech over open-web programmatic. The valuation discount has widened from approximately 40% in mid-2025, suggesting the market now prices structural rather than cyclical headwinds into TTD’s model.

Earnings Track Record

The Trade Desk has beaten or met adjusted EPS estimates in 9 of the last 10 quarters, with the sole miss occurring in Q4 2023 (a 4.7% shortfall). The 75% beat rate over the trailing 20 quarters and 7.9% average surprise establish a pattern of conservative guidance and consistent execution on the bottom line. The recent trend shows beats compressing from the 11-32% range in 2024-early 2025 to just 2.3% in Q3 2025, suggesting either tighter estimate discipline from the Street or reduced management conservatism.

Post-Earnings Price Movement History

The Trade Desk’s post-earnings price behavior shows a consistent pattern: EPS beats do not guarantee positive reactions, and guidance quality drives the stock more than the reported quarter. The average next-day move of +0.6% masks significant volatility, with beats averaging -0.3% and misses -1.2%. The counterintuitive negative average on beats reflects that four of the last five EPS beats resulted in declines or minimal gains, with only Q2 2025’s +6.0% move bucking the trend.

Expected Move & Implied Volatility

The options market prices an 8.5% move (roughly $22.52 to $26.70 range) for the February 26 earnings event, below the stock’s 30-day historical volatility of 84%. That gap between implied and realized volatility suggests either options sellers view the recent price action as overdone or the market expects the result to land within a narrow range around consensus.

Expert Predictions & What to Watch

Key Outlook: Guidance Will Drive the Trade

Key Metrics to Watch

The setup heading into this print is straightforward: the market is paying today for the September narrative and wants proof the slope hasn’t flattened. A clean beat likely requires revenue and EPS landing closer to the top end of guided ranges with margin holding firm—otherwise it risks reading as “fully priced.”