TUI Stock: Analyst Stays Bullish But Trims Price Target Amid Persistent Geopolitical Risks

mwb Research maintained its Buy rating on TUI (ETR: TUI1) but lowered its price target on the stock following the travel group’s third-quarter earnings miss, citing persistent geopolitical risks and reduced visibility.

The firm cut its target to 13.50 euros from 15.00 euros, though that still implies substantial upside from the current level. TUI shares fell 1.1% following the report on Wednesday, leaving them down 19.3% year to date.

Analyst Dr. Oliver Wojahn said TUI’s results showed “signs of the ongoing geopolitical disruptions, notably the conflict involving Iran and softer European consumer sentiment.”

Revenue fell 6.1% year over year to 5.822 billion euros, broadly in line with consensus, while underlying EBIT dropped 27% to 234 million euros, short of the 291 million euros expected and including 20 million euros of direct costs tied to the Iran conflict.

By division, Holiday Experiences “remained relatively stable,” but Markets + Airline “bore the brunt of current market disruptions,” swinging to an EBIT loss on Middle East consumer caution and softer pricing, prompting a 5% cut to risk capacity.

While summer 2026 bookings lag 6% year over year, mwb Research noted a late rebound of 7% over the last four weeks, “signalling that demand is deferred rather than lost,” which supported reaffirmed full-year EBIT guidance of 1.1 billion to 1.4 billion euros.

Calling the stock “fundamentally undervalued,” the firm said ongoing instability, fuel inflation and elevated net debt “compel a more conservative stance,” leading it to trim estimates and incorporate a higher risk premium.