Uber’s Stock (NYSE: UBER) Falling as Revenue Comes in Light

Uber Technologies' stock (NYSE: UBER) has emerged as a front-runner in 2025, with gains of 35.87% YTD moving the price back within range of all time highs. With earnings coming today, and new partnerships announced for Robotaxis, markets were looking upwards, with UBER adding 0.72% through the pre-market. Since the print however, the stock has moved into reverse, with a 6.79% as markets digest the numbers.

Uber’s Q1 2025 earnings were expected to show 17–21% gross bookings growth , driven by mobility and delivery demand. The company’s guidance highlights resilience despite macroeconomic headwinds, with mobility bookings expected to rise 22% YoY.

Earnings for the period came in at $0.80, a beat on the $0.69 per share expected on the street. However, the positivity on EPS came with a revenue miss, with the $11.53 billion reported shy of the $11.62 billion expected. The outlook for Q2 for gross bookings of $45.75-$47.25B reflect growth of 16-20% YoY.

The 2024 annual profit of $9.86 billion marked a turning point, fueled by cost-cutting and core business optimisation. Shedding non-core assets (e.g., autonomous unit sale in 2023) and focusing on Uber Eats during the pandemic stabilized revenue, culminating in a 76% U.S. ride-share market share by December 2024.

Partnerships Driving Sentiment

Uber’s collaboration with Pony.ai marks a significant step toward integrating autonomous robotaxis into its platform. The partnership will launch in the Middle Eastern market by late 2025, utilizing Pony.ai’s seventh-generation autonomous system.

Initial rides will include human safety operators, but the long-term vision emphasises full autonomy, aligning with Uber’s goal to reduce driver dependency and operational costs. Concurrently, Uber expanded its existing partnership with WeRide, aiming to deploy robotaxis in 15 additional cities globally over five years.

This dual approach underscores Uber’s aggressive push into autonomous mobility, a sector projected to grow at a 19.9% CAGR through 2030.

Analysts highlight autonomous technology as a $68.09 billion market opportunity, with Uber’s existing infrastructure providing a competitive edge over rivals like Tesla and Waymo.

Uber also recently announced a strategic alliance with Family Dollar, adding over 5,000 stores to its Uber Eats platform. This move targets cost-conscious consumers by offering low-cost essentials, including cleaning supplies and groceries, for delivery. The partnership aligns with broader economic trends, where 63% of U.S. households prioritize affordability amid inflationary pressures. By expanding its retail footprint, Uber aims to diversify revenue streams beyond ride-hailing, which accounted for 58% of its 2024 gross bookings.

The delivery segment’s growth is further supported by Uber One, a subscription service surpassing 30 million members for a 60% year-over-year increase.

Wall Street maintains a bullish outlook, with 95% of analysts rating UBER as a “Buy” and a median price target of $89.81. Recent upgrades from Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs cite Uber’s profitability trajectory and autonomous vehicle potential.

Notably, RBC Capital Markets and Wells Fargo raised targets to $82 and $90, respectively, citing margin expansion and free cash flow generation. However, bears highlight regulatory risks, including a pending FTC lawsuit over Uber One subscription practices and a $300 million lawsuit by London black-cab drivers.

🟩 The Bull Case for NYSE: UBER

• Autonomous Vehicle Leadership: Strategic partnerships with Pony.ai and WeRide position Uber at the forefront of the robotaxi revolution, targeting a $68 billion market.
• Profitability and Free Cash Flow: Positive net margins, robust EBITDA growth, and aggressive share buybacks underscore a sustainable financial turnaround.
• Diversified Revenue Streams: Expansion into retail delivery (Family Dollar) and strong Uber One subscription growth provide resilience against ride-hailing cyclicality.
• Analyst Upgrades and High Price Targets: 95% Buy ratings and median targets near $90, with some bulls forecasting $115+ on successful execution.

🟥 The Bear Case for NYSE: UBER

• Premium Valuation: Forward P/E above sector average raises the bar for continued outperformance.
• Regulatory Overhang: Ongoing lawsuits over driver classification and subscription practices could inflate costs and dent margins.
• Delivery Growth Deceleration: Slowing expansion in delivery services may signal market saturation and intensifying competition.
• Execution Risks: Delays in autonomous vehicle rollouts or international expansion could undermine long-term growth projections.

While the Q1 2025 earnings report may induce short-term volatility, the long-term thesis remains intact. With a 20.89% annual return since 2024 and a $178.66 billion market cap, Uber exemplifies how innovation and operational rigor can reshape industries.