Uber’s Stock Under Pressure Ahead Of Earnings – What To Expect

Uber’s stock (NYSE: UBER) is under pressure ahead of earnings, 1.18% lower pre-market, to add to a 5.95% pullback since the start of the year. With Uber’s stock price back at $77 ahead of this morning’s print, plenty of support levels have gone by the wayside in recent months.

Consensus sits at $0.79 EPS and $14.28B revenue, representing 19.9% year-over-year revenue growth, but the Street’s focus has shifted from top-line delivery to margin durability following Q3’s operating profit miss despite strong demand metrics.

The setup reflects a market that has re-priced Uber from a growth story to a profitability prove-out. Management guided Q4 adjusted EBITDA to $2.41B–$2.51B (midpoint $2.46B) and gross bookings to $52.25B–$53.75B (midpoint $53.0B). The consensus EPS estimate of $0.79 implies the Street expects Uber to deliver near the midpoint, but recent estimate revisions suggest caution. Over the past 30 days, consensus EPS has been revised 4.9% lower from approximately $0.83 to $0.79, signaling that analysts are tempering expectations even as demand trends remain constructive.

What the result will determine is whether Uber can grow volumes in Mobility without renewed incentive pressure that compresses margins, and whether the doubling of capital expenditures in Q3 to $98M represents a sustainable run rate or a one-time step-up. The stock has declined 23.6% from its September 2025 high of $101.99, creating what bulls frame as a compelling entry point and bears view as appropriate de-rating given autonomous vehicle disruption risk and cost trajectory uncertainty.

Consensus Estimates

Consensus revenue of $14.28B sits comfortably within management’s implied gross bookings range, but the EPS estimate of $0.79 reflects a 34.2% year-over-year decline driven by Q3 2024’s $3.21 adjusted EPS, which included significant tax-related items and asset revaluation gains. The more meaningful comparison is sequential profitability progression. Q3 2025 delivered $1.20 adjusted EPS on $13.47B revenue, implying Q4’s $0.79 estimate represents a sequential decline despite higher revenue expectations. This disconnect stems from the market’s focus on normalized profitability metrics rather than GAAP earnings volatility.

The estimate revision pattern is instructive. The 4.9% downward drift over 30 days occurred despite no major negative business developments, suggesting analysts are building in conservatism around cost absorption and margin sustainability. Three upward revisions in the same period indicate some analysts see upside if Uber delivers on the high end of its adjusted EBITDA guide while maintaining operating expense discipline.

Management Guidance and Commentary

“Understand that we are committed to annual profit expansion, year-over-year profit expansion for as far into the future as we can see.”

CFO Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah’s statement from Q3 2025 established the profitability framework that now governs investor expectations. The commitment to annual profit expansion creates a binary test for Q4: either Uber delivers adjusted EBITDA near the $2.46B midpoint and reaffirms the trajectory, or it provides commentary that introduces uncertainty about the sustainability of margin expansion.

Management’s Q4 guidance of $2.41B–$2.51B adjusted EBITDA represents a 37% increase over Q4 2024’s $1.8B, but the sequential comparison is more relevant. Q3 2025 delivered $2.3B adjusted EBITDA on $13.5B revenue, implying a 17.0% margin. To hit the $2.46B midpoint on $14.28B revenue would require maintaining approximately 17.2% adjusted EBITDA margin, suggesting modest sequential leverage.

“Great technology companies deliver today while building for tomorrow.”

CEO Dara Khosrowshahi’s framing of the capital expenditure increase to $98M in Q3 positions the spending as strategic investment rather than margin erosion. The question for Q4 is whether capex remains elevated and, if so, whether management can articulate a credible path to operating leverage that offsets the investment drag.

Analyst Price Targets & Ratings

Wall Street maintains a bullish stance with 80% of analysts rating shares a Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus target of $109.36 implies 40% upside from current levels, though this target was established when the stock traded closer to $90. The wide gap between current price and target reflects either compelling value opportunity or analysts’ reluctance to cut targets following the recent decline.

Sector & Peer Comparison

Uber trades at 41.7x trailing P/E, a significant premium to application software peers averaging 25.5x, but the forward P/E of 19.5x reflects the market’s expectation that normalized profitability will compress the multiple. The 33.5% profit margin appears elevated relative to peers, but this figure is distorted by Q3 2025’s $6.63B net income, which included substantial non-operating gains.

Earnings Track Record

Uber’s 78.9% beat rate over the past 20 quarters establishes a credible execution track record, but the average surprise of +165.6% is inflated by extreme beats driven by tax items and asset revaluations rather than core operating performance. The pattern that matters is guidance-driven reactions rather than reported EPS beats.

Post-Earnings Price Movement History

The historical pattern establishes that EPS beats do not protect the stock if profitability metrics or guidance disappoint. Q3 2025’s -3.0% decline despite a 350.7% EPS beat demonstrates that the market trades on forward profitability credibility rather than backward-looking earnings surprises.

Expected Move & Implied Volatility

The 6.5% implied move compares to an average historical next-day move of +0.1%, indicating options traders are pricing in substantially higher volatility than recent earnings have delivered. The 65th percentile IV positioning suggests the market sees this quarter as carrying above-average uncertainty.

Expert Predictions & What to Watch

Key Outlook: Cautiously Neutral with Downside Bias

The market has established through three consecutive quarters that Uber’s stock reacts to forward profitability credibility rather than backward-looking EPS beats. The current setup creates asymmetric risk where guidance quality matters more than reported results.

Key Metrics to Watch

The setup heading into this print requires adjusted EBITDA delivery at or above the $2.46B midpoint paired with Q1 2026 guidance that sustains the profit expansion narrative. A clean beat likely requires results closer to the top end of guided ranges with credible commentary on cost trajectory and autonomous vehicle investment returns.