The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes its revised estimate of UK GDP for April to June tomorrow, Wednesday, at 07:00 UK time. GDP, gross domestic product, is the value of goods and services the economy produces, reported here as real growth on the previous quarter. The first estimate showed 0.4%. This release revises that figure using additional data, so it is where any change would appear.
Key points
- Release at 07:00 UK time tomorrow
- First estimate: 0.4% growth
- Reference period: April to June
- Open question: any revision to 0.4%
What the last reading showed
The first estimate, published on the 13th of August, put real GDP 0.4% higher in the second quarter than in the first, and 1.2% higher than a year earlier. GDP per head rose 0.4% on the quarter and 1.0% on the year. The first quarter of 2026 had grown 0.6%.
The monthly path was uneven within the quarter. GDP fell 0.1% in April, was flat in May after a downward revision from growth of 0.1%, and rose 0.3% in June.
Growth has been uneven across quarters too. The ONS series shows 0.1% in each of the third and fourth quarters of 2025 before the 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026. The ONS made no changes to published data in that August release, stating:
There are no revisions to previously published GDP data in this quarterly release, in line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy.
Office for National Statistics
Updates to data from 2025 onwards were left to tomorrow’s bulletin.
What to expect
The ONS does not publish a forecast alongside the release. The data provider’s estimate for the quarter is 0.4% on the quarter and 1.2% on the year, its basis unstated; both match the first estimate, so any difference on the day would be a revision.
The ONS’s own record shows early estimates can move either way. Since the first quarter of 2000, the average gap between first and final estimates has been 0.27 percentage points, and the average revision has been +0.08 percentage points.
What to watch
- The quarterly growth headline: whether it stays at 0.4% or is restated.
- The earlier quarters: this is the release that updates data from 2025 onwards, so check the 0.1% readings for the third and fourth quarters of 2025 and the 0.6% for the first quarter of 2026.
- The annual rate of 1.2% and GDP per head growth of 0.4% on the quarter.
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on the 17th of September, the level set by its December 2025 cut. Its next decision is on the 5th of November, and a revision away from 0.4% would alter the growth record ahead of it.