UK Retail Sales Preview: August Volumes in Focus

The Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK’s national statistics body, publishes its September retail sales figures tomorrow, Friday, at 07:00 UK time. The Retail Sales Index estimates the volume of goods bought, meaning quantities with price changes stripped out, seasonally adjusted. The release turns on whether volumes hold the high level reached in August.

What the last reading showed

The previous bulletin, published on 18 September, put August volumes up 0.5% on July and 2.4% above August 2025. The index, set at 100 for 2024, stood at 103.6 in August against 101.2 a year earlier. The three months to August were 0.9% higher than the three months to May.

August followed July’s 0.5% fall, which was left unrevised. June’s 0.6% rise was revised down from 0.7%, and its index level of 103.7 remains this year’s peak. The ONS said August was the second-highest level since April 2022, just below June.

The ONS tied the swings to the timing of promotions, hot weather, the World Cup and fuel-price moves. Fuel volumes fell in August as prices rose sharply. Of non-store retailers, the ONS said:

Non-store retailers partially recovered from falls in July 2026, with lower sales volumes in July attributed to promotions occurring earlier in June 2026.

Office for National Statistics

What to expect

The ONS does not publish a forecast alongside the release. Its own recent pattern is uneven: volumes rose 0.6% in June, fell 0.5% in July and rose 0.5% in August. The ONS says monthly growth should be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate.

What to watch

• Revisions to August’s 0.5% and June’s 0.6%, since June has already been revised once.
• Non-food stores, which rose 0.6% in August and 0.2% over three months.
• Fuel and non-store retailers, the two lines the ONS linked to price and promotion swings.